Advanced Liver Fibrosis Predicts Unfavorable Long-Term Prognosis in First-Ever Ischemic Stroke or Transient Ischemic Attack

Abstract

Introduction: There are a limited number of studies investigating the relationship between the degree of liver fibrosis and the long-term prognosis, especially ischemic stroke (IS) recurrence, in first-ever IS or transient ischemic attack (TIA).

Objective: We investigated whether there are differences in the long-term all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities and IS recurrence based on the degree of liver fibrosis in first-ever IS or TIA.

Methods: This analysis included 2,504 patients with first-ever IS or TIA recruited from a prospective stroke cohort. Liver fibrosis was predicted using the fibrosis-4 (FIB-4) index, and advanced fibrosis was defined as an FIB-4 index of >3.25. Using Cox regression models, we compared the all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities and IS recurrence. As measures for the additive predictive value of the FIB-4 index for prediction of all-cause mortality, the integrated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (iAUC), net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) were used.

Results: There were 231 (9.2%) patients with advanced fibrosis. During a median follow-up of 1.2 years, the cumulative all-cause and cardiovascular mortalities were 6.4 and 1.9%, and IS recurrence was observed in 5.3%. The advanced fibrosis was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] = 3.98, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.40-6.59), cardiovascular mortality (HR = 4.48, 95% CI = 1.59-12.65), and IS recurrence (HR = 1.95, 95% CI = 1.05-3.65). Adding the FIB-4 index to the model consisting of traditional cardiovascular risk factors improved the predictive accuracy for all-cause mortality as measured using the iAUC (from 0.7594 to 0.7729) and for all-cause mortality at 1 year as measured using the NRI (38.6%) and IDI (0.037).

Conclusions: The burden of liver fibrosis is associated with unfavorable long-term prognosis, including recurrent IS, in first-ever IS or TIA.