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Postoperative nomogram to predict the probability of metastasis in Enneking stage IIB extremity osteosarcoma

Authors
 Seung Hyun Kim  ;  Kyoo-Ho Shin  ;  Ha Yan Kim  ;  Yong Jin Cho  ;  Jae Kyoung Noh  ;  Jin-Suck Suh  ;  Woo-Ick Yang 
Citation
 BMC Cancer, Vol.14(666) : 1-10, 2014 
Journal Title
 BMC Cancer 
ISSN
 1471-2407 
Issue Date
2014
Abstract
BACKGROUND: Metastasis is the most crucial prognostic factor in osteosarcoma. The goal of this study was to develop a new nomogram to predict the probability of metastasis in Enneking stage IIB extremity osteosarcoma after neoadjuvant chemotherapy and limb salvage surgery. METHODS: We examined medical records of 91 patients who had undergone surgery between March 1994 and March 2007. A nomogram was developed using multivariate logistic regression. The nomogram was validated internally by bootstrapping-method (200 repetitions) and externally in independent validation set (n = 34). A Youden-derived cutoff value was assigned to the nomogram to predict dichotomous outcomes for metastasis. RESULTS: The nomogram was built from four predictors of tumor site, serum alkaline phosphatase, intracapsular extension, and Huvos grade, and an additional clause that the cutoff value should be added to the total points in the cases of incomplete surgical resection. P-value of Hosmer and Lemshow Goodness-of-fit test of this model was 0.649. Area under receiver operating curve values of 0.83 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.75 to 0.92) in the training set and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.96) in the validation set were obtained. The accuracy of dichotomous outcomes was 79.1% (95% CI, 0.69 to 0.86) and 82.4% (95% CI, 0.63 to 0.92) in the training and validation sets. CONCLUSIONS: We have developed a new high-performance nomogram to predict the probability of metastasis in Enneking stage IIB extremity osteosarcoma after limb salvage surgery.
Files in This Item:
T201403729.pdf Download
DOI
10.1186/1471-2407-14-666
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Pathology (병리학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Yonsei Biomedical Research Center (연세의생명연구원) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Radiology (영상의학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Orthopedic Surgery (정형외과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Seung Hyun(김승현) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3878-1944
Kim, Ha Yan(김하얀)
Suh, Jin Suck(서진석) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9455-9240
Shin, Kyoo Ho(신규호)
Yang, Woo Ick(양우익) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6084-5019
Cho, Yong Jin(조영진)
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URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/100181
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