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External validation of nomogram for the prediction of recurrence after curative resection in early gastric cancer

 J. H. Kim  ;  H. S. Kim  ;  W. Y. Seo  ;  C. M. Nam  ;  K. Y. Kim  ;  H. C. Jeung  ;  J. F. Lai  ;  H. C. Chung  ;  S. H. Noh  ;  S. Y. Rha 
 ANNALS OF ONCOLOGY, Vol.23(2) : 361-367, 2012 
Journal Title
Issue Date
Adenocarcinoma/pathology ; Adenocarcinoma/surgery* ; Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Neoplasm Recurrence, Local* ; Nomograms* ; Prognosis ; Stomach Neoplasms/pathology ; Stomach Neoplasms/surgery*
early gastric cancer ; external validation ; nomogram
BACKGROUND: Nomograms are statistics-based tools that provide the overall probability of a specific outcome. In our previous study, we developed a nomogram that predicts recurrence of early gastric cancer (EGC) after curative resection. We carried out this study to externally validate our EGC nomogram. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The EGC nomogram was established from a retrospective EGC database that included 2923 consecutive patients. This nomogram was independently externally validated for a cohort of 1058 consecutive patients. For the EGC nomogram validation, we assessed both discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Within the follow-up period (median 37 months), a total of 11 patients (1.1%) experienced recurrence. The concordance index (c-index) was 0.7 (P = 0.02) and the result of the overall C index was 0.82 [P = 0.006, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-1.00]. The goodness of fit test showed that the EGC nomogram had significantly good fit for 1- and 2-year survival intervals (P = 0.998 and 0.879, respectively). The actual and predicted survival outcomes showed good agreement, suggesting that the survival predictions from the nomogram are well calibrated externally. CONCLUSIONS: A preexisting nomogram for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) of EGC after surgery was externally validated. The nomogram is useful for accurate and individual prediction of DFS, patient prognostication, counseling, and follow-up planning.
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1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
5. Research Institutes (연구소) > Oral Cancer Research Institute (구강종양연구소) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Preventive Medicine and Public Health (예방의학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Ki Yeol(김기열) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5357-1067
Kim, Joo Hoon(김주훈)
Kim, Hyo Song(김효송) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0625-9828
Nam, Jung Mo(남정모) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0985-0928
Rha, Sun Young(라선영) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2512-4531
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