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External validation of nomogram for the prediction of recurrence after curative resection in early gastric cancer

 J. H. Kim ; H. S. Kim ; S. Y. Rha ; S. H. Noh ; H. C. Chung ; J. F. Lai ; H. C. Jeung ; K. Y. Kim ; C. M. Nam ; W. Y. Seo 
 Annals of Oncology, Vol.23(2) : 361~367, 2012 
Journal Title
 Annals of Oncology 
Issue Date
BACKGROUND: Nomograms are statistics-based tools that provide the overall probability of a specific outcome. In our previous study, we developed a nomogram that predicts recurrence of early gastric cancer (EGC) after curative resection. We carried out this study to externally validate our EGC nomogram. PATIENTS AND METHODS: The EGC nomogram was established from a retrospective EGC database that included 2923 consecutive patients. This nomogram was independently externally validated for a cohort of 1058 consecutive patients. For the EGC nomogram validation, we assessed both discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: Within the follow-up period (median 37 months), a total of 11 patients (1.1%) experienced recurrence. The concordance index (c-index) was 0.7 (P = 0.02) and the result of the overall C index was 0.82 [P = 0.006, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.59-1.00]. The goodness of fit test showed that the EGC nomogram had significantly good fit for 1- and 2-year survival intervals (P = 0.998 and 0.879, respectively). The actual and predicted survival outcomes showed good agreement, suggesting that the survival predictions from the nomogram are well calibrated externally. CONCLUSIONS: A preexisting nomogram for predicting disease-free survival (DFS) of EGC after surgery was externally validated. The nomogram is useful for accurate and individual prediction of DFS, patient prognostication, counseling, and follow-up planning.
Appears in Collections:
1. 연구논문 > 1. College of Medicine > Dept. of Internal Medicine
1. 연구논문 > 5. Research Institutes > Oral Cancer Research Institute
1. 연구논문 > 1. College of Medicine > Dept. of Preventive Medicine
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