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External Validation of the Long Short-Term Memory Artificial Neural Network-Based SCaP Survival Calculator for Prediction of Prostate Cancer Survival

Authors
 Bumjin Lim  ;  Kwang Suk Lee  ;  Young Hwa Lee  ;  Suah Kim  ;  Choongki Min  ;  Ju-Young Park  ;  Hye Sun Lee  ;  Jin Seon Cho  ;  Sun Il Kim  ;  Byung Ha Chung  ;  Choung-Soo Kim  ;  Kyo Chul Koo 
Citation
 CANCER RESEARCH AND TREATMENT, Vol.53(2) : 558-566, 2021-04 
Journal Title
CANCER RESEARCH AND TREATMENT
ISSN
 1598-2998 
Issue Date
2021-04
Keywords
Decision support techniques ; External validation ; Prostatic neoplasms ; Survival
Abstract
Purpose: Decision-making for treatment of newly diagnosed prostate cancer (PCa) is complex due to the multiple initial treatment modalities available. We aimed to externally validate the SCaP (Severance Study Group of Prostate Cancer) Survival Calculator that incorporates a long short-term memory artificial neural network (ANN) model to estimate survival outcomes of PCa according to initial treatment modality. Materials and methods: The validation cohort consisted of clinicopathological data of 4,415 patients diagnosed with biopsy-proven PCa between April 2005 and November 2018 at three institutions. Area under the curves (AUCs) and time-to-event calibration plots were utilized to determine the predictive accuracies of the SCaP Survival Calculator in terms of progression to castration-resistant PCa (CRPC)-free survival, cancer-specific survival (CSS), and overall survival (OS). Results: Excellent discrimination was observed for CRPC-free survival, CSS, and OS outcomes, with AUCs of 0.962, 0.944, and 0.884 for 5-year outcomes and 0.959, 0.928, and 0.854 for 10-year outcomes, respectively. The AUC values were higher for all survival endpoints compared to those of the development cohort. Calibration plots showed that predicted probabilities of 5-year survival endpoints had concordance comparable to those of the observed frequencies. However, calibration performances declined for 10-year predictions with an overall underestimation. Conclusion: The SCaP Survival Calculator is a reliable and useful tool for determining the optimal initial treatment modality and for guiding survival predictions for patients with newly diagnosed PCa. Further modifications in the ANN model incorporating cases with more extended follow-up periods are warranted to improve the ANN model for long-term predictions.
Files in This Item:
T202102985.pdf Download
DOI
10.4143/crt.2020.637
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Urology (비뇨의학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Yonsei Biomedical Research Center (연세의생명연구원) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Koo, Kyo Chul(구교철) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7303-6256
Lee, Kwang Suk(이광석) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7961-8393
Lee, Hye Sun(이혜선) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6328-6948
Chung, Byung Ha(정병하) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9817-3660
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/184414
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