Alpha-Fetoprotein, Des-Gamma-Carboxy Prothrombin, and Modified RECIST Response as Predictors of Survival after Transarterial Radioembolization for Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Abstract

PURPOSE: To evaluate the prognostic role of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), des-gamma-carboxy protein (DCP), and modified Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (mRECIST) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after transarterial radioembolization (TARE).

MATERIALS AND METHODS: During 2009-2016, 63 patients with AFP >20 ng/mL, DCP >20 mAU/mL, and Child-Pugh class A who were treated with TARE were evaluated using landmark and risk-of-death method after TARE. Both resin microspheres (n = 46) and glass microspheres (n = 17) were used. AFP or DCP response was defined as more than 50% decrease from baseline. mRECIST response was defined as complete or partial response. Median age was 60 years, and the proportion of male sex was 77.8% (n = 49). The proportions of patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stages A, B, and C were 7.9% (n = 5), 46.0% (n = 29), and 46.0% (n = 29), respectively.

RESULTS: At the 3-month landmark, AFP, DCP, and mRECIST responders lived longer than nonresponders (median overall survival, 75.8 vs 7.6 months for AFP; 75.8 vs 7.1 months for DCP; and 75.8 vs 10.0 months for mRECIST; all P < .05). The 6-month risk of death at the 3-month landmark was statistically different only between DCP responders and nonresponders (P = .002). In multivariate analysis, age less than 70 years (P = .024), absence of distant metastasis (P = .049), DCP response (P = .003), and mRECIST response (P = .003) were independent predictors for overall survival at the 3-month landmark after TARE.

CONCLUSIONS: AFP, DCP, and mRECIST responders showed better prognosis than nonresponders after TARE, and DCP response was a more potent predictor than AFP response. Tumor marker response, as well as radiologic response, may be useful to predict post-TARE survival.