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Model for assessing cardiovascular risk in a Korean population

Authors
 Gyung Min Park  ;  Seungbong Han  ;  Seon Ha Kim  ;  Min Woo Jo  ;  Sung Ho Her  ;  Jung Bok Lee  ;  Moo Song Lee  ;  Hyeon Chang Kim  ;  Jung Min Ahn  ;  Seung Whan Lee  ;  Young Hak Kim  ;  Beom Jun Kim  ;  Jung Min Koh  ;  Hong Kyu Kim  ;  Jaewon Choe  ;  Seong Wook Park  ;  Seung Jung Park 
Citation
 CIRCULATION-CARDIOVASCULAR QUALITY AND OUTCOMES, Vol.7(6) : 944-951, 2014 
Journal Title
 CIRCULATION-CARDIOVASCULAR QUALITY AND OUTCOMES 
ISSN
 1941-7713 
Issue Date
2014
MeSH
Adult ; Aged ; Aged, 80 and over ; Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology* ; Feasibility Studies ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Middle Aged ; Morbidity/trends ; Proportional Hazards Models ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Risk Assessment/methods* ; Risk Factors
Keywords
cardiovascular diseases ; coronary disease ; prevention and control
Abstract
BACKGROUND: A model for predicting cardiovascular disease in Asian populations is limited. METHODS AND RESULTS: In total, 57 393 consecutive asymptomatic Korean individuals aged 30 to 80 years without a prior history of cardiovascular disease who underwent a general health examination were enrolled. Subjects were randomly classified into the train (n=45 914) and validation (n=11 479) cohorts. Thirty-one possible risk factors were assessed. The cardiovascular event was a composite of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, and stroke. In the train cohort, the C-index (95% confidence interval) and Akaike Information Criterion were used to develop the best-fitting prediction model. In the validation cohort, the predicted versus the observed cardiovascular event rates were compared by the C-index and Nam and D'Agostino χ(2) statistics. During a median follow-up period of 3.1 (interquartile range, 1.9-4.3) years, 458 subjects had 474 cardiovascular events. In the train cohort, the best-fitting model consisted of age, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, current smoking, family history of coronary heart disease, white blood cell, creatinine, glycohemoglobin, atrial fibrillation, blood pressure, and cholesterol (C-index =0.757 [0.726-0.788] and Akaike Information Criterion =7207). When this model was tested in the validation cohort, it performed well in terms of discrimination and calibration abilities (C-index=0.760 [0.693-0.828] and Nam and D'Agostino χ(2) statistic =0.001 for 3 years; C-index=0.782 [0.719-0.846] and Nam and D'Agostino χ(2) statistic=1.037 for 5 years). CONCLUSIONS: A risk model based on traditional clinical and biomarkers has a feasible model performance in predicting cardiovascular events in an asymptomatic Korean population.
Full Text
http://circoutcomes.ahajournals.org/content/7/6/944.abstract
DOI
10.1161/CIRCOUTCOMES.114.001305
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Preventive Medicine and Public Health (예방의학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Hyeon Chang(김현창) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7867-1240
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/138691
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