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Development and Application of Chronic Disease Risk Prediction Models

Authors
 Sun Min Oh  ;  Katherine M. Stefani  ;  Hyeon Chang Kim 
Citation
 YONSEI MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol.55(4) : 853-860, 2014 
Journal Title
 YONSEI MEDICAL JOURNAL 
ISSN
 0513-5796 
Issue Date
2014
MeSH
Cardiovascular Diseases/epidemiology ; Chronic Disease/epidemiology* ; Communicable Diseases/epidemiology* ; Humans ; Korea/epidemiology ; Models, Theoretical* ; Risk Factors
Keywords
Korea ; Non-communicable diseases ; chronic diseases ; disease prediction ; health risk appraisal ; risk prediction
Abstract
Currently, non-communicable chronic diseases are a major cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and a large proportion of chronic diseases are preventable through risk factor management. However, the prevention efficacy at the individual level is not yet satisfactory. Chronic disease prediction models have been developed to assist physicians and individuals in clinical decision-making. A chronic disease prediction model assesses multiple risk factors together and estimates an absolute disease risk for the individual. Accurate prediction of an individual's future risk for a certain disease enables the comparison of benefits and risks of treatment, the costs of alternative prevention strategies, and selection of the most efficient strategy for the individual. A large number of chronic disease prediction models, especially targeting cardiovascular diseases and cancers, have been suggested, and some of them have been adopted in the clinical practice guidelines and recommendations of many countries. Although few chronic disease prediction tools have been suggested in the Korean population, their clinical utility is not as high as expected. This article reviews methodologies that are commonly used for developing and evaluating a chronic disease prediction model and discusses the current status of chronic disease prediction in Korea.
Files in This Item:
T201401861.pdf Download
DOI
10.3349/ymj.2014.55.4.853
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Preventive Medicine and Public Health (예방의학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Hyeon Chang(김현창) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7867-1240
Oh, Sun Min(오선민)
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/98977
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