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Prognostic Indicators for Acute Liver Failure Development and Mortality in Patients with Hepatitis A: Consecutive Case Analysis

 Hye Sun Shin  ;  Sae Pyul Kim  ;  Sang Hoon Han  ;  Do Young Kim  ;  Sang Hoon Ahn  ;  Kwang-Hyub Han  ;  Chae Yoon Chon  ;  Jun Yong Park 
 YONSEI MEDICAL JOURNAL, Vol.55(4) : 953-959, 2014 
Journal Title
Issue Date
Adult ; Female ; Hepatitis A/complications* ; Humans ; Liver Failure, Acute/etiology* ; Liver Failure, Acute/mortality* ; Liver Failure, Acute/pathology ; Male ; Multivariate Analysis ; Prognosis ; Prospective Studies ; ROC Curve ; Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome/complications
Acute liver failure ; hepatitis A ; mortality ; prognostic indicator
PURPOSE: Due to the seroepidemiological shift in hepatitis A (HA), its severity, mortality, and complications have increased in recent years. Thus, the aim of this study was to identify predictive factors associated with poor prognosis among patients with HA. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A total of 304 patients with HA admitted to our institution between July 2009 and June 2011 were enrolled consecutively. Patients with complications defined as acute liver failure (ALF) were evaluated, and mortality was defined as death or liver transplantation. RESULTS: The mean age of patients (204 males, 100 females) was 32 years. Eighteen (5.9%) patients had progressed to ALF. Of the patients with ALF, 10 patients (3.3%) showed spontaneous survival while 8 (2.6%) died or underwent liver transplantation. Multivariate regression analysis showed that Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) and systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) scores were significant predictive factors of ALF. Based on receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis, a MELD≥23.5 was significantly more predictive than a SIRS score≥3 (area under the ROC: 0.940 vs. 0.742, respectively). In addition, of patients with a MELD score≥23.5, King's College Hospital criteria (KCC) and SIRS scores were predictive factors associated with death/transplantation in multivariate analysis. CONCLUSION: MELD and SIRS scores≥23.5 and ≥3, respectively, appeared to be related to ALF development. In addition, KCC and SIRS scores≥3 were valuable in predicting mortality of patients with a MELD≥23.5.
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1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Do Young(김도영)
Kim, Sae Byol(김샛별)
Park, Jun Yong(박준용) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6324-2224
Shin, Hye Sun(신혜선)
Ahn, Sang Hoon(안상훈) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3629-4624
Chon, Chae Yoon(전재윤)
Han, Kwang-Hyub(한광협) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3960-6539
Han, Sang Hoon(한상훈) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4278-5198
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