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Mathematical Modeling of HIV Prevention Measures Including Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis on HIV Incidence in South Korea

Authors
 Sun Bean Kim  ;  Myoungho Yoon  ;  Nam Su Ku  ;  Min Hyung Kim  ;  Je Eun Song  ;  Jin Young Ahn  ;  Su Jin Jeong  ;  Changsoo Kim  ;  Hee-Dae Kwon  ;  Jeehyun Lee  ;  Davey M. Smith  ;  Jun Yong Choi 
Citation
 PLOS ONE, Vol.9(3) : e90080, 2014 
Journal Title
PLOS ONE
Issue Date
2014
MeSH
Early Diagnosis ; HIV Infections/diagnosis ; HIV Infections/epidemiology* ; HIV Infections/prevention & control* ; Humans ; Incidence ; Male ; Models, Statistical* ; Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis/statistics & numerical data* ; Republic of Korea/epidemiology ; Unsafe Sex/statistics & numerical data
Abstract
BACKGROUND:
Multiple prevention measures have the possibility of impacting HIV incidence in South Korea, including early diagnosis, early treatment, and pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). We investigated how each of these interventions could impact the local HIV epidemic, especially among men who have sex with men (MSM), who have become the major risk group in South Korea. A mathematical model was used to estimate the effects of each these interventions on the HIV epidemic in South Korea over the next 40 years, as compared to the current situation.
METHODS:
We constructed a mathematical model of HIV infection among MSM in South Korea, dividing the MSM population into seven groups, and simulated the effects of early antiretroviral therapy (ART), early diagnosis, PrEP, and combination interventions on the incidence and prevalence of HIV infection, as compared to the current situation that would be expected without any new prevention measures.
RESULTS:
Overall, the model suggested that the most effective prevention measure would be PrEP. Even though PrEP effectiveness could be lessened by increased unsafe sex behavior, PrEP use was still more beneficial than the current situation. In the model, early diagnosis of HIV infection was also effectively decreased HIV incidence. However, early ART did not show considerable effectiveness. As expected, it would be most effective if all interventions (PrEP, early diagnosis and early treatment) were implemented together.
CONCLUSIONS:
This model suggests that PrEP and early diagnosis could be a very effective way to reduce HIV incidence in South Korea among MSM.
Files in This Item:
T201400684.pdf Download
DOI
10.1371/journal.pone.0090080
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Preventive Medicine (예방의학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Ku, Nam Su(구남수) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9717-4327
Kim, Min Hyung(김민형)
Kim, Sun Bean(김선빈)
Kim, Chang Soo(김창수) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5940-5649
Song, Je Eun(송제은)
Jeong, Su Jin(정수진) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4025-4542
Choi, Jun Yong(최준용) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2775-3315
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/98334
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