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Transient elastography-based risk estimation of hepatitis B virus-related occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma: development and validation of a predictive model

Authors
 Do Young Kim  ;  Ki Jun Song  ;  Seung Up Kim  ;  Eun Jin Yoo  ;  Jun Yong Park  ;  Sang Hoon Ahn  ;  Kwang-Hyub Han 
Citation
 ONCOTARGETS AND THERAPY, Vol.6 : 1463-1469, 2013 
Journal Title
 ONCOTARGETS AND THERAPY 
Issue Date
2013
Keywords
hepatocellular carcinoma ; transient elastography ; prediction ; hepatitis B
Abstract
Background: The purpose of this study was to develop and validate a novel transient elastography-based predictive model for occurrence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Methods: A total of 1,250 patients with chronic hepatitis B and baseline liver stiffness values were recruited between May 2005 and December 2007. The predictive model for HCC occurrence was constructed based on a Cox proportional hazards model. We estimated baseline disease-free probabilities at 3 years. Discrimination and calibration were used to validate the model. Results: HCC occurred in 56 patients during a median follow-up of 30.7 months. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, male gender, and liver stiffness values were independent predictors of HCC (all P<0.05), whereas hepatitis B virus DNA ≥20,000 IU/L showed borderline statistical significance (P=0.0659). We developed a predictive model for HCC using these four variables, which showed good discrimination capability, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of 0.806 (95% confidence interval 0.738–0.874). We used the bootstrap method to assess discrimination. The AUROC remained largely unchanged between iterations, with an average value of 0.802 (95% confidence interval 0.791–0.812). The predicted risk of occurrence of HCC calibrated well with the observed risk, with a correlation coefficient of 0.905 (P<0.001). Conclusion: This novel model accurately estimated the risk of HCC occurrence in patients with chronic hepatitis B.
Files in This Item:
T201303653.pdf Download
DOI
10.2147/OTT.S51986
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Biomedical Systems Informatics (의생명시스템정보학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Do Young(김도영)
Kim, Seung Up(김승업) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9658-8050
Park, Jun Yong(박준용) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6324-2224
Song, Ki Jun(송기준) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2505-4112
Ahn, Sang Hoon(안상훈) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3629-4624
Yoo, Eun Jin(유은진)
Han, Kwang-Hyub(한광협) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3960-6539
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/88258
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