Global, Regional, and National Burden of Burn Injury by Total Body Surface Area (TBSA) Involvement from 1990 to 2021, with Projections of Prevalence to 2050

Abstract

Background/Objectives: Burn injuries are a major public health concern. This study estimated global, regional, and national burn burdens by total body surface area from 1990 to 2021 and projected trends to 2050. Methods: Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we examined the prevalence, mortality, and years lived with disability (YLDs) according to age, sex, and region. Future trends were predicted using Bayesian meta-regression models and Das Gupta decomposition analysis. Results: In 2021, global prevalence was 12.99 million for severe burns and 235.34 million for mild burns, with age-standardized rates of 158.75 and 2815.26 per 100,000. Severe burns were highest in Southern Latin America (7836.51 per 100,000) and mild burns in the Caribbean (626.94 per 100,000). The largest declines from 1990 to 2021 were in high-income North America for severe burns (-38.22%) and East Asia for mild burns (-73.03%). Females had higher severe burn prevalence at younger and older ages, while males had higher mild burn prevalence from early adulthood. Leading risk factors were fire, heat, and hot substances (38.22% of severe burn YLDs; 53.87% for mild burns). By 2050, severe burns are projected to rise by 233.4% and mild burns by 142.5%, with Eastern Europe showing the largest growth. Conclusions: Although age-standardized burn rates are declining, absolute cases are projected to rise due to population growth and aging, particularly in low- and middle-income countries, underscoring the need for stronger prevention and improved burn care infrastructure.