Global, regional, and national prevalence of child and adolescent overweight and obesity, 1990-2021, with forecasts to 2050: a forecasting study for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Abstract

Background: Despite the well documented consequences of obesity during childhood and adolescence and future risks of excess body mass on non-communicable diseases in adulthood, coordinated global action on excess body mass in early life is still insufficient. Inconsistent measurement and reporting are a barrier to specific targets, resource allocation, and interventions. In this Article we report current estimates of overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence, progress over time, and forecasts to inform specific actions.

Methods: Using established methodology from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021, we modelled overweight and obesity across childhood and adolescence from 1990 to 2021, and then forecasted to 2050. Primary data for our models included 1321 unique measured and self-reported anthropometric data sources from 180 countries and territories from survey microdata, reports, and published literature. These data were used to estimate age-standardised global, regional, and national overweight prevalence and obesity prevalence (separately) for children and young adolescents (aged 5-14 years, typically in school and cared for by child health services) and older adolescents (aged 15-24 years, increasingly out of school and cared for by adult services) by sex for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Prevalence estimates from 1990 to 2021 were generated using spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models, which leveraged temporal and spatial correlation in epidemiological trends to ensure comparability of results across time and geography. Prevalence forecasts from 2022 to 2050 were generated using a generalised ensemble modelling approach assuming continuation of current trends. For every age-sex-location population across time (1990-2050), we estimated obesity (vs overweight) predominance using the log ratio of obesity percentage to overweight percentage.

Findings: Between 1990 and 2021, the combined prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents doubled, and that of obesity alone tripled. By 2021, 93·1 million (95% uncertainty interval 89·6-96·6) individuals aged 5-14 years and 80·6 million (78·2-83·3) aged 15-24 years had obesity. At the super-region level in 2021, the prevalence of overweight and of obesity was highest in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait), and the greatest increase from 1990 to 2021 was seen in southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (eg, Taiwan [province of China], Maldives, and China). By 2021, for females in both age groups, many countries in Australasia (eg, Australia) and in high-income North America (eg, Canada) had already transitioned to obesity predominance, as had males and females in a number of countries in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Qatar) and Oceania (eg, Cook Islands and American Samoa). From 2022 to 2050, global increases in overweight (not obesity) prevalence are forecasted to stabilise, yet the increase in the absolute proportion of the global population with obesity is forecasted to be greater than between 1990 and 2021, with substantial increases forecast between 2022 and 2030, which continue between 2031 and 2050. By 2050, super-region obesity prevalence is forecasted to remain highest in north Africa and the Middle East (eg, United Arab Emirates and Kuwait), and forecasted increases in obesity are still expected to be largest across southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (eg, Timor-Leste and North Korea), but also in south Asia (eg, Nepal and Bangladesh). Compared with those aged 15-24 years, in most super-regions (except Latin America and the Caribbean and the high-income super-region) a greater proportion of those aged 5-14 years are forecasted to have obesity than overweight by 2050. Globally, 15·6% (12·7-17·2) of those aged 5-14 years are forecasted to have obesity by 2050 (186 million [141-221]), compared with 14·2% (11·4-15·7) of those aged 15-24 years (175 million [136-203]). We forecasted that by 2050, there will be more young males (aged 5-14 years) living with obesity (16·5% [13·3-18·3]) than overweight (12·9% [12·2-13·6]); while for females (aged 5-24 years) and older males (aged 15-24 years), overweight will remain more prevalent than obesity. At a regional level, the following populations are forecast to have transitioned to obesity (vs overweight) predominance before 2041-50: children and adolescents (males and females aged 5-24 years) in north Africa and the Middle East and Tropical Latin America; males aged 5-14 years in east Asia, central and southern sub-Saharan Africa, and central Latin America; females aged 5-14 years in Australasia; females aged 15-24 years in Australasia, high-income North America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa; and males aged 15-24 years in high-income North America.

Interpretation: Both overweight and obesity increased substantially in every world region between 1990 and 2021, suggesting that current approaches to curbing increases in overweight and obesity have failed a generation of children and adolescents. Beyond 2021, overweight during childhood and adolescence is forecast to stabilise due to further increases in the population who have obesity. Increases in obesity are expected to continue for all populations in all world regions. Because substantial change is forecasted to occur between 2022 and 2030, immediate actions are needed to address this public health crisis.

Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Australian National Health and Medical Research Council.