Trends in myopia prevalence among late adolescents in South Korea: a population-level study and future projections up to 2050

Abstract

Objective This study aims to provide updated prevalence estimates of myopia and high myopia among late adolescent men in Seoul, South Korea, and predict future trends up to 2050. Methods and analysis This cross-sectional and population-level study includes late adolescent men of the same age who underwent a series of medical examinations at the Seoul Regional Military Manpower Administration between 2013 and 2022. The population with myopia and high myopia was estimated, and the prevalence for 2050 was forecasted. Associated risk factors and ocular disease status of the high myopia population were investigated. Results Over the 10-year period, the prevalence of myopia and high myopia among late adolescent men in Seoul was 70.67% and 20.29%, respectively. Between 2013 and 2022, the prevalence of the myopia and high myopia has increased significantly (p<0.001 and 0.006, respectively). The annual growth rate for the prevalence of myopia and high myopia was 0.61% and 0.33%, respectively. Regression analyses predicted that by 2050, myopia and high myopia prevalence will reach 90.90% and 31.26% by linear regression, and 90.75% and 31.17% by non-linear regression, respectively. Risk factor analysis identified that a high education level was associated with a higher prevalence of high myopia. Retinal detachment was significantly more common among those with high myopia, while retinal dystrophy was less common. Conclusion This study highlights a concerning trend of increasing myopia and high myopia prevalence, which is likely to reach 90.90% and 31.26% by 2050, with significant future burden for public health and society.