의과대학 정원 확대에 대한 제언

Abstract

From February to now 2024, there continues to be controversy over the expansion of admission number to medical school. Some of thecontroversy arises from a mix of present and future time points. In the present time point, the controversy over whether physicians are someshortages or not has various aspects. Some aspects are presented as evidence of the physician shortage and others as non-shortage. Also, thepresenting evidence of shortage is being disputed, and so is the evidence of the contrary. This controversy over whether there is a shortage ornot in the present time point makes it difficult to reach a consensus. In 10 years, the shortage of doctors will increase due to the rapid increase inthe elderly population, so the admission number of medical schools will need to be increased. However, the increase must be such that there isminimal deterioration in the quality of medical education. More admission numbers should be allocated to medical schools with a high qualityof medical education. This study suggests that large-scale medical schools increase the admission number by 20%–30%, and small-scalemedical schools increase the admission number by 40%–50%, if so, the total increasing number is 760 to 1,066. If the 2,000-person increase isenforced, the quality of medical education must be carefully evaluated and the results should be reflected in adjusting the admission number ofmedical schools. In 20 years later, the admission number of medical schools will have to be reduced. This is because the physician supply ischanging to a linear function and the physician demand (medical care demand) is changing to a quadratic function. Even if the current numberis maintained, there will be an excess of doctors from 2048, so the medical school admission number must be reduced and its size will bereduced to about 2,000, a 30% reduction from the current number. Because the same reduction rate for all medical schools will result in manysmall-scale medical schools, the M&A (mergers and acquisitions) strategy should be considered with 40 medical schools and 12 Korean medicalschools. In Korea, the main contributor to estimating physician demand is the change in population structure. Due to the rapid decrease in thetotal fertility rate, future population projections are uncertain. The recent rapid increase in healthcare utilization should be reexamined in theforecasting of physician demand. Since the various factors that affect the estimate of doctor supply and demand are unclear, the estimate ofphysician supply and demand must be continuously conducted every five years, and the Health Care Workforce Committee must beestablished and operated. The effects of increasing the admission number of medical schools should be evaluated and adjusted annually.