Clinical significance of tacrolimus intra-patient variability on kidney transplant outcomes according to pre-transplant immunological risk

Abstract

High intra-patient variability (IPV) of tacrolimus trough concentrations is increasingly recognized as a predictor of poor long-term outcomes in kidney transplant. However, there is a lack of information regarding the association between tacrolimus IPV and graft outcomes according to immunological risk. We analyzed tacrolimus IPV using the coefficient of variability from months 6-12 after transplantation in 1080 kidney transplant recipients. Patients were divided into two immunological risk groups based on pre-transplant panel reactive antibodies and donor-specific antibodies. High immunological risk was defined as panel reactive antibodies ≥ 20% or the presence of donor-specific antibodies. The effects of tacrolimus IPV on graft outcomes were significantly different between low and high immunological risk patients. A multivariable Cox regression model confirmed that high tacrolimus IPV was an independent risk factor for graft failure in the high risk group (HR, 2.90; 95% CI, 1.42-5.95, P = 0.004). In the high risk group, high tacrolimus IPV was also significantly associated with increased risk of antibody-mediated rejection (P = 0.006). In contrast, death-censored graft survival and antibody-mediated rejection in the low immunological risk group was not significantly different by tacrolimus IPV. High tacrolimus IPV significantly increases the risk of graft failure and antibody-mediated rejection in patients with high immunological risk.