환경성발암물질의 용량-반응모델의 이론적 근거와 응용에 관한 연구

Abstract

This study described methods ´-to ` predict human health risk associated with exposure to environmental carcinogens using animal bioassay data. Also, biological´ assumption for various dose-response models were reviewed. To illustrate the process of risk estimate using relevant dose-response models such as Log-normal, Mantel-Bryan, Weibull and Multistage model, we used four animal carcinogenesis bioassy data of chloroform and chloroform concentrations of tap water measured in large cities of Korea from 1987 to 1995.

As a result, in the case of using average concentration in exposure data and 95% upper bond unit risk of Multistge model, excess cancer risk(RISK I) was about 1.0 x 10-6, in the case of using probability distribution of cumulative exposure data and unit risks, those risks(RISK 11) which were simulated by Monte-Carlo analysis were about 2.4 x 10fi and 7.9 x 10-5 at 50 and 95 percentile, respectively. Therefore risk´ estimated by Monte-Carlo analysis using probability distribution of input variables may be more conservative.