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A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in a tertiary hospital and assessment of the effects of different intervention strategies

 Yae Jee Baek  ;  Taeyong Lee  ;  Yunsuk Cho  ;  Jong Hoon Hyun  ;  Moo Hyun Kim  ;  Yujin Sohn  ;  Jung Ho Kim  ;  Jin Young Ahn  ;  Su Jin Jeong  ;  Nam Su Ku  ;  Joon-Sup Yeom  ;  Jeehyun Lee  ;  Jun Yong Choi 
 PLOS ONE, Vol.15(10) : e0241169, 2020-10 
Journal Title
Issue Date
Betacoronavirus* ; COVID-19 ; COVID-19 Testing ; Caregivers ; Clinical Laboratory Techniques ; Coronavirus Infections / diagnosis ; Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology ; Coronavirus Infections / prevention & control ; Coronavirus Infections / transmission* ; Cross Infection / epidemiology ; Cross Infection / prevention & control ; Cross Infection / transmission* ; Early Diagnosis ; Emergency Service, Hospital ; Hospital Departments ; Humans ; Incidence ; Infection Control / methods* ; Mass Screening ; Medical Staff, Hospital ; Models, Theoretical* ; Nursing Staff, Hospital ; Outpatient Clinics, Hospital ; Pandemics* / prevention & control ; Patients ; Patients' Rooms ; Personal Protective Equipment ; Pneumonia, Viral / epidemiology ; Pneumonia, Viral / prevention & control ; Pneumonia, Viral / transmission* ; Republic of Korea / epidemiology ; SARS-CoV-2 ; Sensitivity and Specificity ; Symptom Assessment ; Tertiary Care Centers* ; Visitors to Patients
Novel coronavirus (named SARS-CoV-2) can spread widely in confined settings including hospitals, cruise ships, prisons, and places of worship. In particular, a healthcare-associated outbreak could become the epicenter of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study aimed to evaluate the effects of different intervention strategies on the hospital outbreak within a tertiary hospital. A mathematical model was developed for the COVID-19 transmission within a 2500-bed tertiary hospital of South Korea. The SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model with a compartment of doctor, nurse, patient, and caregiver was constructed. The effects of different intervention strategies such as front door screening, quarantine unit for newly admitted patients, early testing of suspected infected people, and personal protective equipment for both medical staff and visitors were evaluated. The model suggested that the early testing (within eight hours) of infected cases and monitoring the quarantine ward for newly hospitalized patients are effective measures for decreasing the incidence of COVID-19 within a hospital (81.3% and 70% decrease of number of incident cases, respectively, during 60 days). Front door screening for detecting suspected cases had only 42% effectiveness. Screening for prohibiting the admission of COVID-19 patients was more effective than the measures for patients before emergency room or outpatient clinic. This model suggests that under the assumed conditions, some effective measures have a great influence on the incidence of COVID-19 within a hospital. The implementation of the preventive measures could reduce the size of a hospital outbreak.
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1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Ku, Nam Su(구남수) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9717-4327
Kim, Moo Hyun(김무현)
Kim, Jung Ho(김정호) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5033-3482
Baek, Yae Jee(백예지)
Sohn, Yujin(손유진)
Ahn, Jin Young(안진영) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3740-2826
Yeom, Joon Sup(염준섭) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8940-7170
Jeong, Su Jin(정수진) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4025-4542
Cho, Yunsuk(조윤숙)
Choi, Jun Yong(최준용) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2775-3315
Hyun, Jong Hoon(현종훈) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9621-0250
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