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A mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in a tertiary hospital and assessment of the effects of different intervention strategies

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dc.contributor.author구남수-
dc.contributor.author김무현-
dc.contributor.author김정호-
dc.contributor.author백예지-
dc.contributor.author손유진-
dc.contributor.author안진영-
dc.contributor.author염준섭-
dc.contributor.author정수진-
dc.contributor.author조윤숙-
dc.contributor.author최준용-
dc.contributor.author현종훈-
dc.date.accessioned2021-01-19T08:01:44Z-
dc.date.available2021-01-19T08:01:44Z-
dc.date.issued2020-10-
dc.identifier.urihttps://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/181431-
dc.description.abstractNovel coronavirus (named SARS-CoV-2) can spread widely in confined settings including hospitals, cruise ships, prisons, and places of worship. In particular, a healthcare-associated outbreak could become the epicenter of coronavirus disease (COVID-19). This study aimed to evaluate the effects of different intervention strategies on the hospital outbreak within a tertiary hospital. A mathematical model was developed for the COVID-19 transmission within a 2500-bed tertiary hospital of South Korea. The SEIR (susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered) model with a compartment of doctor, nurse, patient, and caregiver was constructed. The effects of different intervention strategies such as front door screening, quarantine unit for newly admitted patients, early testing of suspected infected people, and personal protective equipment for both medical staff and visitors were evaluated. The model suggested that the early testing (within eight hours) of infected cases and monitoring the quarantine ward for newly hospitalized patients are effective measures for decreasing the incidence of COVID-19 within a hospital (81.3% and 70% decrease of number of incident cases, respectively, during 60 days). Front door screening for detecting suspected cases had only 42% effectiveness. Screening for prohibiting the admission of COVID-19 patients was more effective than the measures for patients before emergency room or outpatient clinic. This model suggests that under the assumed conditions, some effective measures have a great influence on the incidence of COVID-19 within a hospital. The implementation of the preventive measures could reduce the size of a hospital outbreak.-
dc.description.statementOfResponsibilityopen-
dc.languageEnglish-
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science-
dc.relation.isPartOfPLOS ONE-
dc.rightsCC BY-NC-ND 2.0 KR-
dc.subject.MESHBetacoronavirus*-
dc.subject.MESHCOVID-19-
dc.subject.MESHCOVID-19 Testing-
dc.subject.MESHCaregivers-
dc.subject.MESHClinical Laboratory Techniques-
dc.subject.MESHCoronavirus Infections / diagnosis-
dc.subject.MESHCoronavirus Infections / epidemiology-
dc.subject.MESHCoronavirus Infections / prevention & control-
dc.subject.MESHCoronavirus Infections / transmission*-
dc.subject.MESHCross Infection / epidemiology-
dc.subject.MESHCross Infection / prevention & control-
dc.subject.MESHCross Infection / transmission*-
dc.subject.MESHEarly Diagnosis-
dc.subject.MESHEmergency Service, Hospital-
dc.subject.MESHHospital Departments-
dc.subject.MESHHumans-
dc.subject.MESHIncidence-
dc.subject.MESHInfection Control / methods*-
dc.subject.MESHMass Screening-
dc.subject.MESHMedical Staff, Hospital-
dc.subject.MESHModels, Theoretical*-
dc.subject.MESHNursing Staff, Hospital-
dc.subject.MESHOutpatient Clinics, Hospital-
dc.subject.MESHPandemics* / prevention & control-
dc.subject.MESHPatients-
dc.subject.MESHPatients' Rooms-
dc.subject.MESHPersonal Protective Equipment-
dc.subject.MESHPneumonia, Viral / epidemiology-
dc.subject.MESHPneumonia, Viral / prevention & control-
dc.subject.MESHPneumonia, Viral / transmission*-
dc.subject.MESHRepublic of Korea / epidemiology-
dc.subject.MESHSARS-CoV-2-
dc.subject.MESHSensitivity and Specificity-
dc.subject.MESHSymptom Assessment-
dc.subject.MESHTertiary Care Centers*-
dc.subject.MESHVisitors to Patients-
dc.titleA mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission in a tertiary hospital and assessment of the effects of different intervention strategies-
dc.typeArticle-
dc.contributor.collegeCollege of Medicine (의과대학)-
dc.contributor.departmentDept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실)-
dc.contributor.googleauthorYae Jee Baek-
dc.contributor.googleauthorTaeyong Lee-
dc.contributor.googleauthorYunsuk Cho-
dc.contributor.googleauthorJong Hoon Hyun-
dc.contributor.googleauthorMoo Hyun Kim-
dc.contributor.googleauthorYujin Sohn-
dc.contributor.googleauthorJung Ho Kim-
dc.contributor.googleauthorJin Young Ahn-
dc.contributor.googleauthorSu Jin Jeong-
dc.contributor.googleauthorNam Su Ku-
dc.contributor.googleauthorJoon-Sup Yeom-
dc.contributor.googleauthorJeehyun Lee-
dc.contributor.googleauthorJun Yong Choi-
dc.identifier.doi10.1371/journal.pone.0241169-
dc.contributor.localIdA00189-
dc.contributor.localIdA04521-
dc.contributor.localIdA04521-
dc.contributor.localIdA00902-
dc.contributor.localIdA00902-
dc.contributor.localIdA05921-
dc.contributor.localIdA05921-
dc.contributor.localIdA05924-
dc.contributor.localIdA05924-
dc.contributor.localIdA02267-
dc.contributor.localIdA02267-
dc.contributor.localIdA02353-
dc.contributor.localIdA02353-
dc.contributor.localIdA03638-
dc.contributor.localIdA03638-
dc.contributor.localIdA05940-
dc.contributor.localIdA05940-
dc.contributor.localIdA04191-
dc.contributor.localIdA04191-
dc.contributor.localIdA05944-
dc.contributor.localIdA05944-
dc.relation.journalcodeJ02540-
dc.identifier.eissn1932-6203-
dc.identifier.pmid33104736-
dc.contributor.alternativeNameKu, Nam Su-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor구남수-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor김무현-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor김무현-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor김정호-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor김정호-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor백예지-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor백예지-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor손유진-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor손유진-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor안진영-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor안진영-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor염준섭-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor염준섭-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor정수진-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor정수진-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor조윤숙-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor조윤숙-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor최준용-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor최준용-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor현종훈-
dc.contributor.affiliatedAuthor현종훈-
dc.citation.volume15-
dc.citation.number10-
dc.citation.startPagee0241169-
dc.identifier.bibliographicCitationPLOS ONE, Vol.15(10) : e0241169, 2020-10-
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers

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