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Development and validation of a prognostic model for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma undergoing radiofrequency ablation

 Chang Gon Kim  ;  Hyun Woong Lee  ;  Hye Jin Choi  ;  Jung Il Lee  ;  Hye Won Lee  ;  Seung Up Kim  ;  Jun Yong Park  ;  Do Young Kim  ;  Sang Hoon Ahn  ;  Kwang‐Hyub Han  ;  Han Sang Kim  ;  Kyung Hwan Kim  ;  Seong Jin Choi  ;  Yongun Kim  ;  Kwan Sik Lee  ;  Gyoung Min Kim  ;  Man Deuk Kim  ;  Jong Yoon Won  ;  Do Yun Lee  ;  Beom Kyung Kim 
 Cancer Medicine, Vol.8(11) : 5023-5032, 2019 
Journal Title
 Cancer Medicine 
Issue Date
carcinoma ; disease-free survival ; hepatocellular ; nomograms ; prognosis ; radiofrequency ablation
BACKGROUND: There are large variations in prognosis among hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients undergoing radiofrequency ablation (RFA). However, current staging or scoring systems hardly discriminate the outcome of HCC patients treated with RFA. METHODS: A total of 757 treatment-naïve HCC patients undergoing RFA (derivation cohort) were analyzed to establish a nomogram for disease-free survival (DFS) based on Cox proportional hazard regression model. Accuracy of the nomogram was assessed and compared with conventional staging or scoring systems. Furthermore, external validation was performed in an independent cohort including 208 patients (validation cohort). RESULTS: Tumor size, tumor number, alpha-fetoprotein, prothrombin induced by vitamin K absence-II, lymphocyte count, albumin, and presence of ascites were adopted to construct the prognostic nomogram from the derivation cohort. Calibration curves to predict probability of DFS at 3 and 5 years after RFA showed good agreements between the nomogram and actual observations. The concordance index of the present nomogram was 0.759 (95% confidence interval 0.728-0.790), which was superior to those of conventional staging or scoring systems (range 0.505-0.683, all P < .001). These results were also reproduced in the validation cohort. CONCLUSION: Our simple-to-use nomogram optimized for treatment-naïve HCC patients undergoing RFA provided better prognostic performance than conventional staging or scoring systems.
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1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Gyoung Min(김경민) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6768-4396
Kim, Do Young(김도영)
Kim, Man Deuk(김만득) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3575-5847
Kim, Beom Kyung(김범경) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5363-2496
Kim, Seung Up(김승업) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9658-8050
Kim, Han Sang(김한상) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6504-9927
Park, Jun Yong(박준용) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6324-2224
Ahn, Sang Hoon(안상훈) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3629-4624
Won, Jong Yun(원종윤) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8237-5628
Lee, Kwan Sik(이관식) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3672-1198
Lee, Jung Il(이정일) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0142-1398
Lee, Hyun Woong(이현웅) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6958-3035
Lee, Hye Won(이혜원) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3552-3560
Choi, Hye Jin(최혜진) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5917-1400
Han, Kwang-Hyub(한광협) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3960-6539
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