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A nomogram for predicting survival of patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer treated with chemoradiotherapy

 Seo Hee Choi  ;  Seung Woo Park  ;  Jinsil Seong 
 RADIOTHERAPY AND ONCOLOGY, Vol.129(2) : 340-346, 2018 
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BACKGROUND: We developed a nomogram for predicting survival of patients with locally advanced pancreatic cancer (LAPC) after concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CRT) using 18F-flurodeoxyglucose-positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) parameters and CA 19-9 levels. METHODS: Based on 426 patients with LAPC who received concurrent CRT between 2004 and 2015, we investigated significant prognostic factors for survival to build a nomogram, including the maximum standardized uptake value (SUVmax) and CA 19-9 levels. Predictive accuracy and discriminative ability were then measured. RESULTS: Median progression-free survival and overall survival (OS) were 9.4 and 15.4 months, respectively, at a median 15-month follow-up. High-dose radiation (EQD2, ≥61 Gy), initial SUVmax <3.5 and CA 19-9 ≤400 U/mL, and surgical resection after CRT were significantly related to prolonged OS by multivariate analysis (p < 0.05). A nomogram model for OS was established and showed good calibration and acceptable discrimination (c-index 0.656). Using the nomogram, 3 different prognosis groups could be identified with a median OS of 25, 15, and 11 months (p < 0.001). CONCLUSION: A nomogram was developed with high-dose radiation (EQD2, ≥61 Gy), initial SUVmax <3.5, CA 19-9 ≤400 U/mL, and surgical resection after CRT for patients with LAPC. This will help in clinical decision-making and in selecting patients for CRT.
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1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Radiation Oncology (방사선종양학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Park, Seung Woo(박승우) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8230-964X
Seong, Jin Sil(성진실) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1794-5951
Choi, Seo Hee(최서희) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4083-6414
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