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A Bayesian Network Model for Predicting Post-stroke Outcomes With Available Risk Factors

 Eunjeong Park  ;  Hyuk-jae Chang  ;  Hyo Suk Nam 
 Frontiers in Neurology, Vol.9 : 699, 2018 
Journal Title
 Frontiers in Neurology 
Issue Date
bayesian network ; decision support techniques ; imbalanced data ; machine learning classification ; prognostic model ; stroke
Bayesian network is an increasingly popular method in modeling uncertain and complex problems, because its interpretability is often more useful than plain prediction. To satisfy the core requirement in medical research to obtain interpretable prediction with high accuracy, we constructed an inference engine for post-stroke outcomes based on Bayesian network classifiers. The prediction system that was trained on data of 3,605 patients with acute stroke forecasts the functional independence at 3 months and the mortality 1 year after stroke. Feature selection methods were applied to eliminate less relevant and redundant features from 76 risk variables. The Bayesian network classifiers were trained with a hill-climbing searching for the qualified network structure and parameters measured by maximum description length. We evaluated and optimized the proposed system to increase the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) while ensuring acceptable sensitivity for the class-imbalanced data. The performance evaluation demonstrated that the Bayesian network with selected features by wrapper-type feature selection can predict 3-month functional independence with an AUC of 0.889 using only 19 risk variables and 1-year mortality with an AUC of 0.893 using 24 variables. The Bayesian network with 50 features filtered by information gain can predict 3-month functional independence with an AUC of 0.875 and 1-year mortality with an AUC of 0.895. We also built an online prediction service, Yonsei Stroke Outcome Inference System, to substantialize the proposed solution for patients with stroke.
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1. Journal Papers (연구논문) > 1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Neurology (신경과학교실)
1. Journal Papers (연구논문) > 5. Research Institutes (연구소) > Yonsei Cardiovascular Research Institute (심혈관연구소)
1. Journal Papers (연구논문) > 1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실)
Yonsei Authors
남효석(Nam, Hyo Suk) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4415-3995
박은정(Park, Eunjeong)
장혁재(Chang, Hyuck Jae) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6139-7545
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