한국 인구의 안정인구모형과 생명표모형을 통한 출산력과 사망력의 측정

Abstract

[영문]

[한글]

Estimation of the Level of Fertility and Mortality in Korea through Stable

Population Model and Model Life Table

Shin, Min Woong

Department of Public Health, Graduate School, Yonsei University

(Directed by Professor Kim, Myung Ho)

Demographic parameters such as Age Specific Birth Rates, Age Specific Death Rates

and Average Life Expectancy may be estimated from population census data by

utilizing model life table techniques and stable population theory respectively.

Estimation of mortality from census survival rates and the consequent estimation

of birth and death rates can be obtained by the selection of the regional model

life table consistent with census survival rates and fertility and mortality may be

estimated by stable population analysis.

Especially a age-specific mortality rate which is made for the different

distribution of population and deaths within age groups, which depends on the rate

of population increase is obtained by the calculation of a life table that iterates

to the data.

In this paper the Korean population census from 1955 to 1966 are analyzed to

produce demographic measures. The results are as follows:

1. A.S.D.R. from a model life table that iterates to the 1965 population;

Table Ⅰ contains the Age Specific Death Rates that have been estimated from the

1965 population by use of the following formula;

5M'χ=[ℓχ-e**-5r ℓχ+5 / {65/24

(ℓχ+e**-5rℓχ+5)-5/24(e**-104ℓχ10e**5rℓχ-5)/}]-r

5M'χ: Age-specific death rate applicable to a population increasing at given

rate r, as calculated from life table and r.

ℓχ: Expected survivors to age x from x+5 births of given sex at observed

age-specific death rates.

Table Ⅰ

Age-specific death rate(1965)

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5**M'10 5**M'15 5**M'20 5**M'25 5**M'30 5**M'35 5**M'40

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0.0012 0.0020 0.0017 0.0033 0.0041 0.0045 ----

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2. Mortality and birth rates derived with a model life table from census survival

rates from 1960 to 1965.

a) The level that would duplicate the 1965 census figure on the model life table

is 18.4.

b) Expectation of life at birth(female) is 63.5 years.

c) The ratio of the average yearly number of all deaths and the average

intercensal female population gives the estimated average crude death rate,

d=0.0083.

d) The annual rate of natural increase of female (1960-1965) from modellife table

(level 18.4) is r=0.02447.

e) An estimate of the average annual female birth rate is b=0.0263+0.0108=0.0371

f) An estimate of the male birth rate is b=0.0347

g) The male death rate is 0.0077

3. Fertility and mortality rates estimated by stable population analysis when the

population is quasi-stable;

Extimates of fertility and mortality rates derived from the age distribution and

the growth rate when the population is approximately stable are shown in Table Ⅱ.

When mortality has been declining, this data is adjusted with consideration of the

approximate length of time(t) and the speed of the decline. Table Ⅲ contains this

adjusted data.