다변인회귀분석법과 Gustafson 방법에 의한 연령감정 정확도의 비교연구

Abstract

[한글]

저자는 12세에서 79세에 이르는 영구치 치아 157개를 재료로 Gustafson의 6조직변화를 관찰하여 연령과 각 관찰항목간의 상관계수출 산출하였으며, 각 관찰항목을 연령을 설명하는 독립변수로 보고 다변인회귀분석 (Multiple regression )을 이용하여 연령예측방정식을 산출하고 Gustafson의 방법과 비교 분석한 결과 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다.

1. 연령과 6가지 관찰항목 간에는 치근의 흡수 (Root resorption )를 제외하고는 뚜렷한 상관성이 있었으며 상관정도의 순서는 치근부 투명상아질 ( Transparent dentin) γ =0.79, 이차상아질형성 (Secondary dentin) γ=0.72, 치주상태 (Periodontal change) γ=0

.69, 교모도(Attrition) γ=0.64, 백아질 침착 γ=0.61, 치근의 홉수( Root resorption) γ=0.39이었다.

2. Gustafson방법에 의한 직선회귀방정식은

y=8.88+3.52 X γ=0.87, γ**2 = 0.76 SD = 8.18 F= 483.56, P< 0.01이었다.

다변인회귀분석 (Multiple regression ) 에 의한 연령예측방정식은 y=8.57+6.37T+4.63P+2.40s+2.40C+3.08A+1.34Rγ=0.89, γ**2 = 0.78

SD = 7.82 F=91.62, P< 0.01 Durbin - Watson Coefficient = 1.09

이었다.

3. Gustafson방법과 다변인회귀분석법에 의한 연령추정의 비교에서 다변인회귀분석법치 보다 오차를 줄일 수 있는 방법임이 증명되었다.

Gustafson 방법 SD = 8.18

다변인회귀분석법 SD = 7.82

4. 다변인회귀분석법을 사용할 때 Gustafson이 관찰한 6가지 항목은 각기 연령들 설명하는 독립변수가 될 수 있음이 재확인되었다.

[영문]

This study comprised 157 extracted teeth, 73 of the teeth originated from males and 84 from females, the age range wart 12-79 years. The correlation coefficient of each Gstafson's criteria in relation to age was carried out. Age estimati on were performed on 157 teeth according to the method by Gustafson and by use of multiple regression, a? used by Johanson, after evaluating the six criteria of Gustafson by multiple regression computer analysis. Two prediction formulas and standard

deviations were compared with each other.

The results were as follows:

1. The author found that six Gustafson's criteria had strong correlation with age except root resorption, and correlation coefficients were γ = 0.79 (Transparent dentin), γ= 0.72 (Secondary dentin), γ = 0.69 (Periodontal change), γ = 0.63

(Attrition), γ = 0.39 (Root resorption),respectively.

2. The age estimation formula by Gustafaon'a method was calculated as follows:

Y= 8.88+3.52X

r= 0.87,r**2 = 0.76

SD = 8.18

F = 483.56, P< 0.01

The age estimation formula by multiple regression wag calculated as follows:

Y= 8.57 + 6.93T+6.37T+4.63P+2.70S+2.40C+3.08A+1.34R

r = 0.89, r**2 = 0.78

SD = 7.82

F= 91.62, P<0.01

Durbin-Watson Coefficient = 1.09

3. In comparison of two estimation formula7, the formula by multiple recession, the method of Johanson, was found to be slightly more relablc than Gustafson's method. Gustafson's method SD = 8.18

Multiple .regression (Johanson's method) SD = 7.82

4. It wits reaffirmed that Gustafson's six criteria could be a independent variable in multiple recession analysis.