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수학적 모델을 이용한 신종인플루엔자 환자 예측 및 대응 전략 평가

Other Titles
 Mathematical Modeling of the Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus and Evaluation of the Epidemic Response Strategies in the Republic of Korea 
Authors
 서민아  ;  이지현  ;  지혜진  ;  김영근  ;  강대용  ;  허남욱  ;  하경화  ;  이동한  ;  김창수 
Citation
 Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health, Vol.43(2) : 109-116, 2010 
Journal Title
 Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health 
ISSN
 1975-8375 
Issue Date
2010
Keywords
Influenza ; Mathematical model ; Pandemic ; Influenza vaccines ; Public policy
Abstract
Objectives: The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model. Methods: We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model. Results: The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million). Conclusions: Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model
Files in This Item:
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DOI
10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.2.109
Appears in Collections:
4. Graduate School of Public Health (보건대학원) > Graduate School of Public Health (보건대학원) > 1. Journal Papers
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Preventive Medicine and Public Health (예방의학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kang, Dae Ryong(강대용)
Kim, Chang Soo(김창수) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5940-5649
Suh, Mi Na(서민아)
Chi, Hye Jin(지혜진)
Hur, Nam Wook(허남욱)
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/101149
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