A scoring system for prediction of lateral neck node metastasis from papillary thyroid cancer

Abstract

Lateral neck node metastasis is an important prognostic factor in thyroid carcinoma. We developed a scoring system for use in prediction of lateral neck node metastasis from papillary thyroid cancer. In this study, 161 consecutive patients were included in the training data set. This scoring system, named the Yonsei Estimated Value (YEV) for lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid cancer, was developed on the basis of results from multivariate logistic regression analysis of preoperative clinical and radiologic data. Sixty eight consecutive patients were included for testing of the validity of the scoring system. The equation for prediction of lateral neck node metastasis was follows:YEV (Yonsei Estimated Value) = 1/(1+X)X = Exp (5.333-[0.902 × sex]+[0.036 × age]-[1.020 × tumor size]-[0.177 × lymph node size]-[0.032 × lymph node density])When the YEV was 0.3 or more, the probability of lateral neck node metastasis was 79.0%, with sensitivity of 76.3%, specificity of 69.8%, positive predictive value of 56.7%, and negative predictive value of 85.1% in the training set. When fine needle aspiration biopsy for suspicious lateral neck nodes is not possible, or the results are inadequate, our scoring system for prediction of lateral neck node metastasis can be helpful in optimization of the surgical extent for each patient.