Global burden of disease due to young-onset dementia and the forecast for 2050: update from global burden of disease study 2021

Abstract

ObjectiveThe prevalence of young-onset dementia (YOD) is increasing worldwide, leading to greater economic and social burden, necessitating strategic management and prevention.Materials and methodsUsing GBD 2021 data, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates were analyzed by age, sex, and risk factors across five age groups. ARIMA and Bayesian models were applied to predict disease burden through 2050.ResultsFrom 1990 to 2021, disease burden increased in both sexes aged >= 55 years, with the greatest rise in the 55-59 group. DALYs rates were consistently higher in females, peaking in the 60-64 group. High fasting plasma glucose was the leading risk factor. Model performance varied by sex and age; applying the best-fitting models indicated a continued increase in burden, particularly among females.ConclusionsYOD burden has risen over time and is associated with modifiable factors such as high blood glucose and body mass index. The increasing trend is expected to persist, highlighting the need for effective management strategies to reduce future socioeconomic impact.