Global burden of burn and inhalation injuries and future trends: analysis of a Global Burden of Disease study 1990-2021 Population-based crosssectional analysis

Abstract

Purpose: This study aimed to assess the global, regional, and national burdens of burns and airway injuries using Global Burden of Disease (GBD) data between 1990 and 2021, and to project future trends through 2050. Methods: Bayesian meta-regression was used to analyze the age-and sex-stratified burn prevalence and years lived with disability (YLDs). Future projections were estimated using the socio-demographic index (SDI)-adjusted regression and Das Gupta decomposition. We utilized GBD estimates from 1990 to 2021, covering burn and airway injury data stratified by age and sex across all countries and regions. Prevalence was measured as age-and sex-standardized rates per 100,000 individuals. YLDs were estimated as disability-adjusted burden measures. Future projections were derived using SDI-adjusted regression and Das Gupta decomposition. Results: In 2021, 248 million global burn cases and 6,900 airway burns were reported globally. By 2050, burns are projected to increase by 6.42%, mainly in Latin America and Eastern Europe, whereas airway burns are expected to decline 10-fold. From 1990 to 2021, the YLDs declined by 43.34% for burns and 26.79% for airway burns, with persistent disparities between low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Conclusion: Burns pose substantial challenges to public health and the economy. Strengthening prevention, acute care, and rehabilitation is crucial, particularly in LMICs with limited access to healthcare.