AI model using CT-based imaging biomarkers to predict hepatocellular carcinoma in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Abstract

Background & Aims: Various hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models have been proposed for patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB) using clinical variables. We aimed to develop an artificial intelligence (AI)-based HCC prediction model by incorporating imaging biomarkers derived from abdominal computed tomography (CT) images along with clinical variables. Methods: An AI prediction model employing a gradient-boosting machine algorithm was developed utilizing imaging biomarkers extracted by DeepFore, a deep learning-based CT auto-segmentation software. The derivation cohort (n = 5,585) was randomly divided into the training and internal validation sets at a 3:1 ratio. The external validation cohort included 2,883 patients. Six imaging biomarkers (i.e. abdominal visceral fat-total fat volume ratio, total fat-trunk volume ratio, spleen volume, liver volume, liver-spleen Hounsfield unit ratio, and muscle Hounsfield unit) and eight clinical variables were selected as the main variables of our model, PLAN-B-DF. Results: In the internal validation set (median follow-up duration = 7.4 years), PLAN-B-DF demonstrated an excellent predictive performance with a c-index of 0.91 and good calibration function (p = 0.78 by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test). In the external validation cohort (median follow-up duration = 4.6 years), PLAN-B-DF showed a significantly better discrimination function compared to previous models, including PLAN-B, PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, and CU-HCC (c-index, 0.89 vs. 0.65-0.78; all p <0.001), and maintained a good calibration function (p = 0.42 by the Hosmer-Lemeshow test). When patients were classified into four groups according to the risk probability calculated by PLAN-B-DF, the 10-year cumulative HCC incidence was 0.0%, 0.4%, 16.0%, and 46.2% in the minimal-, low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, respectively. Conclusion: This AI prediction model, integrating deep learning-based auto-segmentation of CT images, offers improved performance in predicting HCC risk among patients with CHB compared to previous models. (c) 2024 European Association for the Study of the Liver. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights are reserved, including those for text and data mining, AI training, and similar technologies.