Predicting Individual Treatment Effects to Determine Duration of Dual Antiplatelet Therapy After Stent Implantation

Abstract

Background: After coronary stent implantation, prolonged dual antiplatelet therapy (DAPT) increases bleeding risk, requiring personalization of DAPT duration. The aim of this study was to develop and validate a machine learning model to predict optimal DAPT duration after contemporary drug-eluting stent implantation in patients with coronary artery disease.

Methods and results: The One-Month DAPT, RESET (Real Safety and Efficacy of 3-Month Dual Antiplatelet Therapy Following Endeavor Zotarolimus-Eluting Stent Implantation), and IVUS-XPL (Impact of Intravascular Ultrasound Guidance on Outcomes of Xience Prime Stents in Long Lesion) trials provided a derivation cohort (n=6568). Using the X-learner approach, an individualized DAPT score was developed to determine the therapeutic benefit of abbreviated (1-6 months) versus standard (12-month) DAPT using various predictors. The primary outcome was major bleeding; the secondary outcomes included 1-year major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events and 1-year net adverse clinical events. The risk reduction with abbreviated DAPT (3 months) in the individualized DAPT-determined higher predicted benefit group was validated in the TICO (Ticagrelor Monotherapy After 3 Months in the Patients Treated With New Generation Sirolimus-Eluting Stent for Acute Coronary Syndrome) trial (n=3056), which enrolled patients with acute coronary syndrome treated with ticagrelor. The validation cohort comprised 1527 abbreviated and 1529 standard DAPT cases. Major bleeding occurred in 25 (1.7%) and 45 (3.0%) patients in the abbreviated and standard DAPT groups, respectively. The individualized DAPT score identified 2582 (84.5%) participants who would benefit from abbreviated DAPT, which was significantly associated with a lower major bleeding risk (absolute risk difference [ARD], 1.26 [95% CI, 0.15-2.36]) and net adverse clinical events (ARD, 1.59 [95% CI, 0.07-3.10]) but not major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (ARD, 0.63 [95% CI, -0.34 to 1.61]), compared with standard DAPT in the higher predicted benefit group. Abbreviated DAPT had no significant difference in clinical outcomes of major bleeding (ARD, 1.49 [95% CI, -1.74 to 4.72]), net adverse clinical events (ARD, 2.57 [95% CI, -1.85 to 6.99]), or major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (ARD, 1.54 [95% CI, -1.26 to 4.34]), compared with standard DAPT in the individualized DAPT-determined lower predicted benefit group.

Conclusions: Machine learning using the X-learner approach identifies patients with acute coronary syndrome who may benefit from abbreviated DAPT after drug-eluting stent implantation, laying the groundwork for personalized antiplatelet therapy.