The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions

Rachel Sze Jen Goh; Bryan Chong; Jayanth Jayabaskaran; Silingga Metta Jauhari; Siew Pang Chan; Martin Tze Wah Kueh; Kannan Shankar; Henry Li; Yip Han Chin; Gwyneth Kong; Vickram Vijay Anand; Keith Andrew Chan; Indah Sukmawati; Sue Anne Toh; Mark Muthiah; Jiong-Wei Wang; Gary Tse; Anurag Mehta; Alan Fong; Lohendran Baskaran; Liang Zhong; Jonathan Yap; Khung Keong Yeo; Derek J Hausenloy; Jack Wei Chieh Tan; Tze-Fan Chao; Yi-Heng Li; Shir Lynn Lim; Koo Hui Chan; Poay Huan Loh; Ping Chai; Tiong Cheng Yeo; Adrian F Low; Chi Hang Lee; Roger Foo; Huay Cheem Tan; James Yip; Sarita Rao; Satoshi Honda; Satoshi Yasuda; Takashi Kajiya; Shinya Goto; Bryan P Yan; Xin Zhou; Gemma A Figtree; Mamas A Mamas; Yongcheol Kim; Young-Hoon Jeong; Moo Hyun Kim; Duk-Woo Park; Seung-Jung Park; A Mark Richards; Mark Y Chan; Gregory Y H Lip; Nicholas W S Chew

doi:10.1016/j.lanwpc.2024.101138

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The burden of cardiovascular disease in Asia from 2025 to 2050: a forecast analysis for East Asia, South Asia, South-East Asia, Central Asia, and high-income Asia Pacific regions

Authors: Rachel Sze Jen Goh ; Bryan Chong ; Jayanth Jayabaskaran ; Silingga Metta Jauhari ; Siew Pang Chan ; Martin Tze Wah Kueh ; Kannan Shankar ; Henry Li ; Yip Han Chin ; Gwyneth Kong ; Vickram Vijay Anand ; Keith Andrew Chan ; Indah Sukmawati ; Sue Anne Toh ; Mark Muthiah ; Jiong-Wei Wang ; Gary Tse ; Anurag Mehta ; Alan Fong ; Lohendran Baskaran ; Liang Zhong ; Jonathan Yap ; Khung Keong Yeo ; Derek J Hausenloy ; Jack Wei Chieh Tan ; Tze-Fan Chao ; Yi-Heng Li ; Shir Lynn Lim ; Koo Hui Chan ; Poay Huan Loh ; Ping Chai ; Tiong Cheng Yeo ; Adrian F Low ; Chi Hang Lee ; Roger Foo ; Huay Cheem Tan ; James Yip ; Sarita Rao ; Satoshi Honda ; Satoshi Yasuda ; Takashi Kajiya ; Shinya Goto ; Bryan P Yan ; Xin Zhou ; Gemma A Figtree ; Mamas A Mamas ; Yongcheol Kim ; Young-Hoon Jeong ; Moo Hyun Kim ; Duk-Woo Park ; Seung-Jung Park ; A Mark Richards ; Mark Y Chan ; Gregory Y H Lip ; Nicholas W S Chew

Citation: LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-WESTERN PACIFIC, Vol.49 : 101138, 2024-08

Journal Title: LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH-WESTERN PACIFIC

Issue Date: 2024-08

Keywords: Asia ; Cardiovascular disease ; Disability-adjusted life years ; Global burden ; Mortality ; Risk factors

Abstract: Background: Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050.

Methods: Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades.

Findings: Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population).

Interpretation: This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor.

Funding: This was supported by the NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).