Difference Between Estimated GFR Based on Cystatin C Versus Creatinine and Incident Atrial Fibrillation: A Cohort Study of the UK Biobank

Abstract

Rationale & objective: The difference between cystatin C-based and creatinine-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFRdiff) has been suggested to reflect factors distinct from kidney function that are associated with cardiovascular risk. However, the association between eGFRdiff and atrial fibrillation (AF) risk has not been extensively evaluated.

Study design: Prospective cohort study.

Setting & participants: Using data from the UK Biobank, this study included 363,494 participants with measured serum creatinine and cystatin C levels and without a prior diagnosis of AF or a history of related procedures.

Exposure: Estimated GFRdiff, calculated as cystatin C-based eGFR minus creatinine-based eGFR. Estimated GFRdiff was also categorized as negative (<-15mL/min/1.73m2), midrange (-15 to 15mL/min/1.73m2), or positive (≥15mL/min/1.73m2).

Outcome: Incident AF.

Analytical approach: Subdistribution hazard models were fit, treating death that occurred before development of AF as a competing event.

Results: During the median follow-up period of 11.7 years, incident AF occurred in 18,994 (5.2%) participants. In the multivariable-adjusted model, participants with a negative eGFRdiff had a higher risk of incident AF (subdistribution HR [SHR], 1.25 [95% CI, 1.20-1.30]), whereas participants with a positive eGFRdiff had a lower risk of AF (SHR, 0.81 [95% CI, 0.77-0.87]) compared with those with a midrange eGFRdiff. When eGFRdiff was treated as a continuous variable in the adjusted model, every 10mL/min/1.73m2 higher eGFRdiff was associated with a 0.90-fold decrease in the risk of incident AF.

Limitations: A single measurement of baseline serum creatinine and cystatin C levels.

Conclusions: The difference between cystatin C- and creatinine-based eGFRs was associated with the risk of AF development. A higher eGFRdiff was associated with a lower risk of AF. These findings may have implications for the management of patients at risk of incident AF.

Plain-language summary: The difference between cystatin C-based estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and creatinine-based eGFR has recently gained attention as a potential indicator of cardiovascular outcomes influenced by factors other than kidney function. This study investigated the association between the differences in 2 eGFRs (cystatin C-based eGFR minus creatinine-based eGFR) and incident atrial fibrillation (AF) among>340,000 participants from the UK Biobank Study. Compared with those with a near zero eGFR difference, participants with a negative eGFR difference had a higher risk of AF, while those with a positive eGFR difference had a lower risk. These findings suggest that measuring eGFR differences may help identify individuals at a higher risk of developing AF.