Cutoff of the reverse shock index multiplied by the Glasgow coma scale for predicting in-hospital mortality in adult patients with trauma: a retrospective cohort study

Abstract

Background

Early identification of patients at risk of potential death and timely transfer to appropriate healthcare facilities are critical for reducing the number of preventable trauma deaths. This study aimed to establish a cutoff value to predict in-hospital mortality using the reverse shock index multiplied by the Glasgow Coma Scale (rSIG).

Methods

This multicenter retrospective cohort study used data from 23 emergency departments in South Korea between January 2011 and December 2020. The outcome variable was the in-hospital mortality. The relationship between rSIG and in-hospital mortality was plotted using the shape-restricted regression spline method. To set a cutoff for rSIG, we found the point on the curve where mortality started to increase and the point where the slope of the mortality curve changed the most. We also calculated the cutoff value for rSIG using Youden's index.

Results

A total of 318,506 adult patients with trauma were included. The shape-restricted regression spline curve showed that in-hospital mortality began to increase when the rSIG value was less than 18.86, and the slope of the graph increased the most at 12.57. The cutoff of 16.5, calculated using Youden's index, was closest to the target under-triage and over-triage rates, as suggested by the American College of Surgeons, when applied to patients with an rSIG of 20 or less. In addition, in patients with traumatic brain injury, when the rSIG value was over 25, in-hospital mortality tended to increase as the rSIG value increased.

Conclusions

We propose an rSIG cutoff value of 16.5 as a predictor of in-hospital mortality in adult patients with trauma. However, in patients with traumatic brain injury, a high rSIG is also associated with in-hospital mortality. Appropriate cutoffs should be established for this group in the future.