Machine-Learning Algorithms Using Systemic Inflammatory Markers to Predict the Oncologic Outcomes of Colorectal Cancer After Surgery

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to investigate the clinical significance of machine-learning (ML) algorithms based on serum inflammatory markers to predict survival outcomes for patients with colorectal cancer (CRC).

Methods: The study included 941 patients with stages I to III CRC. Based on random forest algorithms using 15 compositions of inflammatory markers, four different prediction scores (DFS score-1, DFS score-2, DFS score-3, and DFS score-4) were developed for the Yonsei cohort (training set, n = 803) and tested in the Ulsan cohort (test set, n = 138). The Cox proportional hazards model was used to determine correlation between prediction scores and disease-free survival (DFS). Harrell's concordance index (C-index) was used to compare the predictive ability of prediction scores for each composition.

Results: The multivariable analysis showed the DFS score-4 to be an independent prognostic factor after adjustment for clinicopathologic factors in both the training and test sets (hazard ratio [HR], 8.98; 95% confidence interval [CI] 6.7-12.04; P < 0.001 for the training set and HR, 2.55; 95% CI 1.1-5.89; P = 0.028 for the test set]. With regard to DFS, the highest C-index among single compositions was observed in the lymphocyte-to-C-reactive protein ratio (LCR) (0.659; 95% CI 0.656-0.662), and the C-index of DFS score-4 (0.727; 95% CI 0.724-0.729) was significantly higher than that of LCR in the test set. The C-index of DFS score-3 (0.725; 95% CI 0.723-0.728) was similar to that of DFS score-4, but higher than that of DFS score-2 (0.680; 95% CI 0.676-0.683).

Conclusions: The ML-based approaches showed prognostic utility in predicting DFS. They could enhance clinical use of inflammatory markers in patients with CRC.