Risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in grey zone patients by the Baveno VII criteria: A competing risk analysis

Abstract

Background: Baveno VII was proposed for non-invasive identification of clinically significant portal hypertension. However, a substantial proportion of patients is classified in the grey zone (i.e., liver stiffness 15-24.9 kPa and/or platelet count <150 × 109 /L).

Aims: To evaluate the risk and predictors of hepatic decompensation in patients in the grey zone, and to determine the prognostic role of spleen stiffness measurement.

Methods: We included prospective cohorts (from Hong Kong, Korea and France) of patients who had undergone transient elastography examination for chronic liver disease. We estimated risk of hepatic decompensation using competing risk regression with hepatocellular carcinoma and non-liver-related death as competing events.

Results: We identified 2763 patients with compensated advanced chronic liver disease (cACLD). There were 1243 (44.9%) and 536 (19.4%) patients in the Baveno VII grey zone and high-risk groups, respectively. The cumulative incidence of decompensation at 5 years was significantly different among low-risk (0.6% [95% CI: 0.2%-1.3%]), grey zone 4.2% (95% CI: 3.1%-5.4%) and high-risk groups (11.4% [95% CI: 8.7%-14.6%]). By competing risk analysis, aetiology of liver disease (alcohol-related liver disease), albumin-bilirubin score and alkaline phosphatase level were independently associated with decompensation among patients in the grey zone. The combination of Baveno VII and spleen stiffness significantly reduced patients classified into grey zone (12.8% in cACLD patients), while maintaining high discrimination of decompensation in low- and high-risk groups.

Conclusions: Patients in grey zone of Baveno VII criteria remain at high risk of hepatic decompensation. Clinical risk factors and spleen stiffness can further stratify the risk in such patients.