Role of geographic characteristics in the spatial cluster detection of cancer: Evidence in South Korea, 1999-2013

Abstract

Background: Identification of high-risk areas of cancer, referred to as spatial clusters, can inform targeted policies for cancer control. Although cancer cluster detection could be affected by various geographic characteristics including sociodemographic and environmental factors which impacts could also vary over time, studies accounting for such influence remain limited. This study aims to assess the role of geographic characteristics in the spatial cluster detection for lung and stomach cancer over an extended period.

Methods: We obtained sex-specific age-standardized incidence and mortality rates of lung and stomach cancer as well as geographic characteristics across 233 districts in South Korea for three five-year periods between 1999 and 2013. We classified geographic characteristics of each district into four categories: demography, socioeconomic status, behaviors, and physical environments. Specifically, we quantified physical environments using measures of greenness, concentrations of particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide, and air pollution emissions. Finally, we conducted cluster detection analyses using weighted normal spatial scan statistics with the residuals from multiple regression analyses performed with the four progressive sets of geographic attributes.

Results: We found that the size of clusters reduced as we progressively adjusted for geographic covariates. Among the four categories, physical environments had the greatest impact on the reduction or disappearance of clusters particularly for lung cancer consistently over time. Whereas older population affected a decrease of lung cancer clusters in the early period, the contribution of education was large in the recent period. The impact was less clear in stomach cancer than lung cancer.

Conclusion: Our findings highlight the importance of geographic characteristics in explaining the existing cancer clusters and identifying new clusters, which jointly provides practical guidance to cancer control.