Deep Learning Improves Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease-Related Mortality and Admission in Patients with Hypertension: Analysis of the Korean National Health Information Database

Abstract

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop, compare, and validate models for predicting cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality and hospitalization with hypertension using a conventional statistical model and a deep learning model.

Methods: Using the database of Korean National Health Insurance Service, 2,037,027 participants with hypertension were identified. Among them, CVD (myocardial infarction or stroke) death and/or hospitalization that occurred within one year after the last visit were analyzed. Oversampling was performed using the synthetic minority oversampling algorithm to resolve imbalances in the number of samples between case and control groups. The logistic regression method and deep neural network (DNN) method were used to train models for assessing the risk of mortality and hospitalization.

Findings: Deep learning-based prediction model showed a higher performance in all datasets than the logistic regression model in predicting CVD hospitalization (accuracy, 0.863 vs. 0.655; F1-score, 0.854 vs. 0.656; AUC, 0.932 vs. 0.655) and CVD death (accuracy, 0.925 vs. 0.780; F1-score, 0.924 vs. 0.783; AUC, 0.979 vs. 0.780).

Interpretation: The deep learning model could accurately predict CVD hospitalization and death within a year in patients with hypertension. The findings of this study could allow for prevention and monitoring by allocating resources to high-risk patients.