Proposal of nomograms to predict clinical outcomes in patients with ampulla of Vater cancer based on the Korea-Japan collaborative study

Abstract

Background In this study, we aimed to develop and validate a nomogram to predict overall survival (OS) and recurrence-free survival (RFS) in patients who underwent curative resection of ampulla of Vater (AOV) cancer. This is the first study for nomograms in AOV cancer patients using retrospective data based on an international multicenter study. Methods A total of 2007 patients with AOV adenocarcinoma who received operative therapy between 2002 January and 2015 December in Korea and Japan were retrospectively assessed to develop a prediction model. Nomograms for 5-year OS and 3-year RFS were constructed by dividing the patients who received and who did not receive adjuvant therapy after surgery, respectively. Significant risk factors were identified by univariate and multivariate Cox analyses. Performance assessment of the four prediction models was conducted by the Harrell's concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves using bootstrapping. Results A total of 2007 and 1873 patients were collected for nomogram construction to predict 5-year OS and 3-year RFS. We developed four types of nomograms, including models for 5-year OS and 3-year RFS in patients who did not receive postoperative adjuvant therapy, and 5-year OS and 3-year RFS in patients who received postoperative adjuvant therapy. The C-indices of these nomograms were 0.795 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.766-0.823), 0.712 (95% CI: 0.674-0.750), 0.804 (95% CI: 0.7778-0.829), and 0.703 (95% CI: 0.669-0.737), respectively. Conclusions This predictive model could help clinicians to choose optimal treatment and precisely predict prognosis in AOV cancer patients.