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Machine Learning Model for the Prediction of Hemorrhage in Intensive Care Units

 Sora Kang  ;  Chul Park  ;  Jinseok Lee  ;  Dukyong Yoon 
 HEALTHCARE INFORMATICS RESEARCH, Vol.28(4) : 364-375, 2022-10 
Journal Title
Issue Date
Blood Transfusion ; Hemorrhage ; Intensive Care Units ; Monitoring ; Physiological ; Prognosis
Objectives: Early hemorrhage detection in intensive care units (ICUs) enables timely intervention and reduces the risk of irreversible outcomes. In this study, we aimed to develop a machine learning model to predict hemorrhage by learning the patterns of continuously changing, real-world clinical data.

Methods: We used the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care databases (MIMIC-III and MIMIC-IV). A recurrent neural network was used to predict severe hemorrhage in the ICU. We developed three machine learning models with an increasing number of input features and levels of complexity: model 1 (11 features), model 2 (18 features), and model 3 (27 features). MIMIC-III was used for model training, and MIMIC-IV was split for internal validation. Using the model with the highest performance, external verification was performed using data from a subgroup extracted from the eICU Collaborative Research Database.

Results: We included 5,670 ICU admissions, with 3,150 in the training set and 2,520 in the internal test set. A positive correlation was found between model complexity and performance. As a measure of performance, three models developed with an increasing number of features showed area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve values of 0.61-0.94 according to the range of input data. In the subgroup extracted from the eICU database for external validation, an AUROC value of 0.74 was observed.

Conclusions: Machine learning models that rely on real clinical data can be used to predict patients at high risk of bleeding in the ICU.
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1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Biomedical Systems Informatics (의생명시스템정보학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Yoon, Dukyong(윤덕용)
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