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Prediction of cancer survivors' mortality risk in Korea: a 25-year nationwide prospective cohort study

 Yeun Soo Yang  ;  Heejin Kimm  ;  Keum Ji Jung  ;  Seulji Moon  ;  Sunmi Lee  ;  Sun Ha Jee 
 EPIDEMIOLOGY AND HEALTH, Vol.44 : e2022075, 2022-09 
Journal Title
Issue Date
Cancer Survivors* ; Female ; Humans ; Male ; Neoplasms* ; Prospective Studies ; Republic of Korea / epidemiology ; Risk Factors ; Smoking
Cancer survivor ; Life style ; Mortality risk factors ; Prediction ; Tobacco smoking
Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the factors affecting cancer survival and develop a mortality prediction model for Korean cancer survivors. Our study identified lifestyle and mortality risk factors and attempted to determine whether health-promoting lifestyles affect mortality.

Methods: Among the 1,637,287 participants in the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS) cohort, 200,834 cancer survivors who were alive after cancer diagnosis were analyzed. Discrimination and calibration for predicting the 10-year mortality risk were evaluated. A prediction model was derived using the Cox model coefficients, mean risk factor values, and mean mortality from the cancer survivors in the KCPS cohort.

Results: During the 21.6-year follow-up, the all-cause mortality rates of cancer survivors were 57.2% and 39.4% in men and women, respectively. Men, older age, current smoking, and a history of diabetes were high-risk factors for mortality, while exercise habits and a family history of cancer were associated with reduced risk. The prediction model discrimination in the validation dataset for both KCPS all-cause mortality and KCPS cancer mortality was shown by C-statistics of 0.69 and 0.68, respectively. Based on the constructed prediction models, when we modified exercise status and smoking status, as modifiable factors, the cancer survivors' risk of mortality decreased linearly.

Conclusions: A mortality prediction model for cancer survivors was developed that may be helpful in supporting a healthy life. Lifestyle modifications in cancer survivors may affect their risk of mortality in the future.
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4. Graduate School of Public Health (보건대학원) > Graduate School of Public Health (보건대학원) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kimm, Heejin(김희진) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4526-0570
Jung, Keum Ji(정금지) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4993-0666
Jee, Sun Ha(지선하) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9519-3068
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