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Suboptimal Performance of Hepatocellular Carcinoma Prediction Models in Patients with Hepatitis B Virus-Related Cirrhosis

Authors
 Jae Seung Lee  ;  Tae Seop Lim  ;  Hye Won Lee  ;  Seung Up Kim  ;  Jun Yong Park  ;  Do Young Kim  ;  Sang Hoon Ahn  ;  Hyun Woong Lee  ;  Jung Il Lee  ;  Ja Kyung Kim  ;  In Kyung Min  ;  Beom Kyung Kim 
Citation
 DIAGNOSTICS, Vol.13(1) : 3, 2023-01 
Journal Title
DIAGNOSTICS
Issue Date
2023-01
Keywords
antiviral therapy ; chronic hepatitis B ; hepatocellular carcinoma ; liver cirrhosis ; liver stiffness ; risk
Abstract
This study aimed to evaluate the predictive performance of pre-existing well-validated hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) prediction models, established in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started potent antiviral therapy (AVT). We retrospectively reviewed the cases of 1339 treatment-naïve patients with HBV-related cirrhosis who started AVT (median period, 56.8 months). The scores of the pre-existing HCC risk prediction models were calculated at the time of AVT initiation. HCC developed in 211 patients (15.1%), and the cumulative probability of HCC development at 5 years was 14.6%. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that older age (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.023), lower platelet count (aHR, 0.997), lower serum albumin level (aHR, 0.578), and greater LS value (aHR, 1.012) were associated with HCC development. Harrell’s c-indices of the PAGE-B, modified PAGE-B, modified REACH-B, CAMD, aMAP, HCC-RESCUE, AASL-HCC, Toronto HCC Risk Index, PLAN-B, APA-B, CAGE-B, and SAGE-B models were suboptimal in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis, ranging from 0.565 to 0.667. Nevertheless, almost all patients were well stratified into low-, intermediate-, or high-risk groups according to each model (all log-rank p < 0.05), except for HCC-RESCUE (p = 0.080). Since all low-risk patients had cirrhosis at baseline, they had unneglectable cumulative incidence of HCC development (5-year incidence, 4.9−7.5%). Pre-existing risk prediction models for patients with chronic hepatitis B showed suboptimal predictive performances for the assessment of HCC development in patients with HBV-related cirrhosis.
Files in This Item:
T202301216.pdf Download
DOI
10.3390/diagnostics13010003
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Do Young(김도영)
Kim, Beom Kyung(김범경) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5363-2496
Kim, Seung Up(김승업) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9658-8050
Kim, Ja Kyung(김자경) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5025-6846
Park, Jun Yong(박준용) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6324-2224
Ahn, Sang Hoon(안상훈) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3629-4624
Lee, Jae Seung(이재승) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2371-0967
Lee, Jung Il(이정일) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0142-1398
Lee, Hyun Woong(이현웅) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6958-3035
Lee, Hye Won(이혜원) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3552-3560
Lim, Tae Seop(임태섭) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4578-8685
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/193633
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