The Liability Threshold Model for Predicting the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Patients with Type 2 Diabetes: A Multi-Cohort Study of Korean Adults

Abstract

Personalized risk prediction for diabetic cardiovascular disease (DCVD) is at the core of precision medicine in type 2 diabetes (T2D). We first identified three marker sets consisting of 15, 47, and 231 tagging single nucleotide polymorphisms (tSNPs) associated with DCVD using a linear mixed model in 2378 T2D patients obtained from four population-based Korean cohorts. Using the genetic variants with even modest effects on phenotypic variance, we observed improved risk stratification accuracy beyond traditional risk factors (AUC, 0.63 to 0.97). With a cutoff point of 0.21, the discrete genetic liability threshold model consisting of 231 SNPs (GLT231) correctly classified 87.7% of 2378 T2D patients as high or low risk of DCVD. For the same set of SNP markers, the GLT and polygenic risk score (PRS) models showed similar predictive performance, and we observed consistency between the GLT and PRS models in that the model based on a larger number of SNP markers showed much-improved predictability. In silico gene expression analysis, additional information was provided on the functional role of the genes identified in this study. In particular, HDAC4, CDKN2B, CELSR2, and MRAS appear to be major hubs in the functional gene network for DCVD. The proposed risk prediction approach based on the liability threshold model may help identify T2D patients at high CVD risk in East Asian populations with further external validations.