Validation of BMI genetic risk score and DNA methylation in a Korean population

Abstract

When DNA profiles obtained from biological evidence at a crime scene fail to match suspects or anyone in the database, forensic DNA phenotyping, which is the prediction of externally visible characteristics, can facilitate a traced search for an unknown suspect by limiting the search range. Therefore, age, trait, or lifestyle predictors, as well as the predictor for colorations, have been researched in the forensic field. In the present study, for the development of a prediction model for BMI or obesity, we investigated several previously reported BMI- or obesity-associated genetic and epigenetic markers that included four CpGs (cg06500161, cg00574958, cg12593793, and cg10505902 of the ABCG1, CPT1A, LMNA, and PDE4DIP genes, respectively), and eight SNPs (rs12463617, rs1558902, rs591166, rs11030104, rs11671664, rs6545814, rs16858082, and rs574367 near the TMEM18, FTO, MC4R, BDNF, GIPR/QPCTL, ADCY3/RBJ, GNPDA2, and SEC16B genes, respectively) in 700 Koreans within the BMI ranging from 16.1 to 40.6 (27.6 ± 4.5) kg/m2. Linear regression analysis showed that DNA methylation of the four CpG sites explained 10.9% total variance in BMI, and the model constructed using age information, genetic score from eight SNPs, and DNA methylation at four CpG sites could account for 17.4% of BMI variance. Using data mining techniques, i.e., decision tree (Entropy and Gini), random forest, and bagging, a total of eight models with BMI 31 or 32 as a cutoff value were also constructed based on the data obtained from 490 training samples with age and sex as a covariate. Among them, a random forest model with a cutoff value of 31 showed the best performance with 63.3% accuracy and the AUC value of 0.682 in 210 test set samples. In the present study, we could replicate the previous finding that DNA methylation contributes more to BMI than do genetic factors. In addition, although the accuracy for the prediction of BMI was not high, our study is meaningful in respect of the ability to use a small number of markers to achieve similar prediction accuracy to that obtained from a model composed of more than a thousand markers, which adds support to continued research to identify a small set of predictive markers for practical application in the forensic field.