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External Validation of the FSAC Model Using On-Therapy Changes in Noninvasive Fibrosis Markers in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B: A Multicenter Study

Authors
 Jae Seung Lee  ;  Hyun Woong Lee  ;  Tae Seop Lim  ;  In Kyung Min  ;  Hye Won Lee  ;  Seung Up Kim  ;  Jun Yong Park  ;  Do Young Kim  ;  Sang Hoon Ahn  ;  Beom Kyung Kim 
Citation
 CANCERS, Vol.14(3) : 711, 2022-02 
Journal Title
CANCERS
Issue Date
2022-02
Keywords
antiviral agents ; area under curve ; calibration ; carcinoma ; chronic ; discriminant analysis ; hepatitis B ; hepatocellular ; models ; statistical
Abstract
Antiviral therapy (AVT) induces the regression of non-invasive fibrosis markers (NFMs) and reduces hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) risk among chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients. We externally validated the predictive performance of the FSAC prediction model for HCC using on-therapy NFM responses. Our multicenter study consecutively recruited treatment-naïve CHB patients (n = 3026; median age, 50.0 years; male predominant (61.3%); cirrhosis in 1391 (46.0%) patients) receiving potent AVTs for >18 months between 2007 and 2018. During follow-up (median 64.0 months), HCC developed in 303 (10.0%) patients. Patients with low FIB-4 or APRI levels at 12 months showed significantly lower HCC risk than those with high NFM levels at 12 months (all p < 0.05). Cumulative 3-, 5-, and 8-year HCC probabilities were 0.0%, 0.3% and 1.2% in the low-risk group (FSAC ≤ 2); 2.1%, 5.2%, and 11.1% in the intermediate-risk group (FSAC 3-8); and 5.2%, 15.5%, and 29.8% in the high-risk group (FSAC ≥ 9) (both p < 0.001 between each adjacent pair). Harrell's c-index value for FSAC score (0.770) was higher than those for PAGE-B (0.725), modified PAGE-B (0.738), modified REACH-B (0.737), LSM-HCC (0.734), and CAMD (0.742). Our study showed that the FSAC model, which incorporates on-therapy changes in NFMs, had better predictive performance than other models using only baseline parameters.
Files in This Item:
T202200407.pdf Download
DOI
10.3390/cancers14030711
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Do Young(김도영)
Kim, Beom Kyung(김범경) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5363-2496
Kim, Seung Up(김승업) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9658-8050
Park, Jun Yong(박준용) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6324-2224
Ahn, Sang Hoon(안상훈) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3629-4624
Lee, Jae Seung(이재승) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2371-0967
Lee, Hyun Woong(이현웅) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6958-3035
Lee, Hye Won(이혜원) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3552-3560
Lim, Tae Seop(임태섭) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4578-8685
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/188001
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