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A Risk Prediction Model for Operative Mortality after Heart Valve Surgery in a Korean Cohort

 Ho Jin Kim  ;  Joon Bum Kim  ;  Seon-Ok Kim  ;  Sung-Cheol Yun  ;  Sak Lee  ;  Cheong Lim  ;  Jae Woong Choi  ;  Ho Young Hwang  ;  Kyung Hwan Kim  ;  Seung Hyun Lee  ;  Jae Suk Yoo  ;  Kiick Sung  ;  Hyung Gon Je  ;  Soon Chang Hong  ;  Yun Jung Kim  ;  Sung-Hyun Kim  ;  Byung-Chul Chang 
 Journal of Chest Surgery, Vol.54(2) : 88-98, 2021-04 
Journal Title
Journal of Chest Surgery
Issue Date
Heart valve surgery ; Mortality ; Risk prediction model
Background: This study aimed to develop a new risk prediction model for operative mortality in a Korean cohort undergoing heart valve surgery using the Korea Heart Valve Surgery Registry (KHVSR) database.

Methods: We analyzed data from 4,742 patients registered in the KHVSR who underwent heart valve surgery at 9 institutions between 2017 and 2018. A risk prediction model was developed for operative mortality, defined as death within 30 days after surgery or during the same hospitalization. A statistical model was generated with a scoring system by multiple logistic regression analyses. The performance of the model was evaluated by its discrimination and calibration abilities.

Results: Operative mortality occurred in 142 patients. The final regression models identified 13 risk variables. The risk prediction model showed good discrimination, with a c-statistic of 0.805 and calibration with Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit p-value of 0.630. The risk scores ranged from -1 to 15, and were associated with an increase in predicted mortality. The predicted mortality across the risk scores ranged from 0.3% to 80.6%.

Conclusion: This risk prediction model using a scoring system specific to heart valve surgery was developed from the KHVSR database. The risk prediction model showed that operative mortality could be predicted well in a Korean cohort.
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1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Thoracic and Cardiovascular Surgery (흉부외과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Lee, Sak(이삭) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6130-2342
Lee, Seung Hyun(이승현) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0311-6565
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