Clinical decision support algorithm based on machine learning to assess the clinical response to anti-programmed death-1 therapy in patients with non-small-cell lung cancer

Abstract

Objective: Anti-programmed death (PD)-1 therapy confers sustainable clinical benefits for patients with non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC), but only some patients respond to the treatment. Various clinical characteristics, including the PD-ligand 1 (PD L1) level, are related to the anti-PD-1 response; however, none of these can independently serve as predictive biomarkers. Herein, we established a machine learning (ML)-based clinical decision support algorithm to predict the anti-PD-1 response by comprehensively combining the clinical information. Materials and methods: We collected clinical data, including patient characteristics, mutations and laboratory findings, from the electronic medical records of 142 patients with NSCLC treated with anti-PD-1 therapy; these were analysed for the clinical outcome as the discovery set. Nineteen clinically meaningful features were used in supervised ML algo-rithms, including LightGBM, XGBoost, multilayer neural network, ridge regression and linear discriminant analysis, to predict anti-PD-1 responses. Based on each ML algorithm's prediction performance, the optimal ML was selected and validated in an independent valida-tion set of PD-1 inhibitor-treated patients. Results: Several factors, including PD-L1 expression, tumour burden and neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, could independently predict the anti-PD-1 response in the discovery set. ML platforms based on the LightGBM algorithm using 19 clinical features showed more sig-nificant prediction performance (area under the curve [AUC] 0.788) than on individual clinical features and traditional multivariate logistic regression (AUC 0.759). Conclusion: Collectively, our LightGBM algorithm offers a clinical decision support model to predict the anti-PD-1 response in patients with NSCLC. 2021 Published by Elsevier Ltd.