Dynamics of liver stiffness-based risk prediction model during antiviral therapy in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Abstract

Objective: The liver stiffness-based risk prediction models predict hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) development. We investigated the influence of antiviral therapy (AVT) on liver stiffness-based risk prediction model in patients with chronic hepatitis B (CHB).

Methods: Patients with CHB who initiated AVT were retrospectively recruited from 13 referral Korean institutes. The modified risk estimation for hepatocellular carcinoma in chronic hepatitis B (mREACH-B) model was selected for the analysis.

Results: Between 2007 and 2015, 1034 patients with CHB were recruited. The mean age of the study population (639 men and 395 women) was 46.8 years. During AVT, the mREACH-B score significantly decreased from the baseline to 3 years of AVT (mean 9.21 → 7.46, P < 0.05) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (mean 7.23, P > 0.05). The proportion of high-risk patients (mREACH-B score ≥11) was significantly reduced from the baseline to 2 years of AVT (36.4% → 16.4%, P < 0.001) and was maintained until 5 years of AVT (12.2%, P > 0.05). The mREACH-B scores at baseline and 1 year of AVT independently predicted HCC development (hazard ratio = 1.209-1.224) (all P < 0.05). The cumulative incidence rate of HCC was significantly different at 5 years of AVT among risk groups (high vs. high-intermediate vs. low-intermediate vs. low) from baseline (4.5% vs. 3.2% vs. 1.5% vs. 0.8%) and 1 year (11.8% vs. 4.6% vs. 1.8% vs. 0.6%) (all P < 0.05, log-rank tests).

Conclusions: The mREACH-B score was dynamically changed during AVT. Thus, repeated assessment of the mREACH-B score is required to predict the changing risk of HCC development in patients with CHB undergoing AVT.