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Estimation of global case fatality rate of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) using meta-analyses: Comparison between calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case

Authors
 Ramy Abou Ghayda  ;  Keum Hwa Lee  ;  Young Joo Han  ;  Seohyun Ryu  ;  Sung Hwi Hong  ;  Sojung Yoon  ;  Gwang Hun Jeong  ;  Jinhee Lee  ;  Jun Young Lee  ;  Jae Won Yang  ;  Maria Effenberger  ;  Michael Eisenhut  ;  Andreas Kronbichler  ;  Marco Solmi  ;  Han Li  ;  Louis Jacob  ;  Ai Koyanagi  ;  Joaquim Radua  ;  Jae Il Shin  ;  Lee Smith 
Citation
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES, Vol.100 : 302-308, 2020-09 
Journal Title
 INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES 
ISSN
 1201-9712 
Issue Date
2020-09
Keywords
COVID-19 ; Calendar date ; Case fatality rate ; Days since the first confirmed case ; Proportion meta-analysis
Abstract
Objective: Since the outbreak of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in December of 2019 in China, estimating the pandemic's case fatality rate (CFR) has been the focus and interest of many stakeholders. In this manuscript, we prove that the method of using the cumulative CFR is static and does not reflect the trend according to the daily change per unit of time. Methods: A proportion meta-analysis was carried out on the CFR in every country reporting COVID-19 cases. Based on these results, we performed a meta-analysis for a global COVID-19 CFR. Each analysis was performed using two different calculations of CFR: according to the calendar date and according to the days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case. We thus explored an innovative and original calculation of CFR, concurrently based on the date of the first confirmed case as well as on a daily basis. Results: For the first time, we showed that using meta-analyses according to the calendar date and days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case, were different. Conclusion: We propose that a CFR according to days since the outbreak of the first confirmed case might be a better predictor of the current CFR of COVID-19 and its kinetics.
Files in This Item:
T202004615.pdf Download
DOI
10.1016/j.ijid.2020.08.065
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Pediatrics (소아과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Shin, Jae Il(신재일) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2326-1820
Lee, Keum Hwa(이금화) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1511-9587
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/180343
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