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Establishment and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model in Patients With Hepatocellular Carcinoma Treated With Transarterial Radioembolization

Authors
 Jae Seung Lee  ;  Han Ah Lee  ;  Mi Young Jeon  ;  Tae Seop Lim  ;  Beom Kyung Kim  ;  Jun Yong Park  ;  Do Young Kim  ;  Sang Hoon Ahn  ;  Soon Ho Um  ;  Kwang-Hyub Han  ;  Yeon Seok Seo  ;  Seung Up Kim 
Citation
 EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY, Vol.32(6) : 739-747, 2020-06 
Journal Title
 EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF GASTROENTEROLOGY & HEPATOLOGY 
ISSN
 0954-691X 
Issue Date
2020-06
Abstract
Background/aims: Few studies have reported the treatment outcomes of transarterial radioembolization (TARE) using yttrium-90 (Y) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). We established and validated a new risk prediction model for patients with HCC treated with TARE. Methods: Between 2010 and 2017, 113 and 35 patients with intrahepatic HCC treated with TARE were selected for the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The modified response evaluation criteria in solid tumors (mRECIST) were used for response evaluation. Results: In the training cohort, the median age was 64.1 years (92 males and 21 females) and the mean survival after TARE was 50.3 months. The cumulative survival rates at six and 12 months were 92.0 and 84.0%, respectively. A new risk prediction model for patients with HCC treated with TARE (Y-scoring system) was established from the training cohort using five independent baseline variables [serum albumin < 3.5 g/dL, hazard ratio = 5.446; alpha-fetoprotein > 200 ng/mL (hazard ratio = 5.071); tumor number ≥ 3 (hazard ratio = 2.933); portal vein thrombosis (hazard ratio = 4.915); and hepatic vein invasion (hazard ratio = 8.500)] and two on-treatment variables [no des-gamma-carboxy prothrombin response (hazard ratio = 15.346) and progressive disease at three months (hazard ratio = 4.154)] for mortality (all P < 0.05). The predictive accuracy of the Y-scoring system was acceptable to predict six [area under the curve (AUC) = 0.845], nine (AUC = 0.868), and 12-month mortality (AUC = 0.886) (all P < 0.05). The predictive accuracy of the system was similarly maintained in the validation cohort (AUC 0.737-0.901 at 6-12 months). Conclusion: Our new risk prediction model can be used to stratify different prognoses in patients with HCC treated with TARE. Validation studies are required.
Full Text
https://ovidsp.ovid.com/ovidweb.cgi?T=JS&CSC=Y&NEWS=N&PAGE=fulltext&AN=00042737-202006000-00011&LSLINK=80&D=ovft
DOI
10.1097/MEG.0000000000001585
Appears in Collections:
1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Internal Medicine (내과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Do Young(김도영)
Kim, Beom Kyung(김범경) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5363-2496
Kim, Seung Up(김승업) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9658-8050
Park, Jun Yong(박준용) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6324-2224
Ahn, Sang Hoon(안상훈) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3629-4624
Lim, Tae Seop(임태섭) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4578-8685
Jeon, Mi Young(전미영) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3980-4503
Han, Kwang-Hyub(한광협) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3960-6539
URI
https://ir.ymlib.yonsei.ac.kr/handle/22282913/176225
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