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A deep learning model for real-time mortality prediction in critically ill children

 Soo Yeon Kim  ;  Saehoon Kim  ;  Joongbum Cho  ;  Young Suh Kim  ;  In Suk Sol  ;  Youngchul Sung  ;  Inhyeok Cho  ;  Minseop Park  ;  Haerin Jang  ;  Yoon Hee Kim  ;  Kyung Won Kim  ;  Myung Hyun Sohn 
 CRITICAL CARE, Vol.23(1) : 279, 2019 
Journal Title
Issue Date
Intensive care units , pediatric ; Machine learning ; Mortality ; Prognosis ; Risk assessment
BACKGROUND: The rapid development in big data analytics and the data-rich environment of intensive care units together provide unprecedented opportunities for medical breakthroughs in the field of critical care. We developed and validated a machine learning-based model, the Pediatric Risk of Mortality Prediction Tool (PROMPT), for real-time prediction of all-cause mortality in pediatric intensive care units. METHODS: Utilizing two separate retrospective observational cohorts, we conducted model development and validation using a machine learning algorithm with a convolutional neural network. The development cohort comprised 1445 pediatric patients with 1977 medical encounters admitted to intensive care units from January 2011 to December 2017 at Severance Hospital (Seoul, Korea). The validation cohort included 278 patients with 364 medical encounters admitted to the pediatric intensive care unit from January 2016 to November 2017 at Samsung Medical Center. RESULTS: Using seven vital signs, along with patient age and body weight on intensive care unit admission, PROMPT achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the range of 0.89-0.97 for mortality prediction 6 to 60 h prior to death. Our results demonstrated that PROMPT provided high sensitivity with specificity and outperformed the conventional severity scoring system, the Pediatric Index of Mortality, in predictive ability. Model performance was indistinguishable between the development and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: PROMPT is a deep model-based, data-driven early warning score tool that can predict mortality in critically ill children and may be useful for the timely identification of deteriorating patients.
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1. College of Medicine (의과대학) > Dept. of Pediatrics (소아청소년과학교실) > 1. Journal Papers
Yonsei Authors
Kim, Kyung Won(김경원) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4529-6135
Kim, Soo Yeon(김수연) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4965-6193
Kim, Yoon Hee(김윤희) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2149-8501
Sol, In Suk(설인숙) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2470-9682
Sohn, Myung Hyun(손명현) ORCID logo https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2478-487X
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