Noninvasive models to predict liver cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B

Abstract

Objectives: Few noninvasive models of chronic hepatitis B (CHB) to predict liver cirrhosis have been studied. The aim of the current study is to investigate the diagnostic accuracy of two simple novel models of spleen–platelet ratio index (SPRI) and age–spleen–platelet ratio index (ASPRI) in patients with CHB.

Patients and methods: A total of 346 consecutive treatment-naïve patients with CHB were retrospectively studied. The aspartate to alanine aminotransferase ratio (AAR), age–platelet index (API), aspartate aminotransferase to platelet ratio index (APRI), SPRI, and ASPRI were compared with liver histology.

Results: AAR, APRI, SPRI, API, and ASPRI correlated significantly to fibrosis stage (all P<0.001). The diagnostic accuracy of ASPRI was the highest among five tests for prediction of cirrhosis (area under receiver operating characteristic curve, AUROC=0.893). Using a cutoff score of ASPRI>12, the presence of cirrhosis could be correctly identified with a high accuracy (96.3% positive predictive value) in 35 (10.1%) of 346 patients. Similarly, using a cutoff of <5, the presence of cirrhosis could be totally excluded with 100% of negative predictive value in 120 (34.7%) of 346 patients.

Conclusion: ASPRI was accurate in predicting cirrhosis and screening with ASPRI has the potential to reduce the number of liver biopsies in CHB patients.